Ind. might be affected by Tropical Storm Isaac

Bloomington won’t escape the effects of Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall Tuesday night in Louisiana.

Two to six inches of rain are expected to fall this weekend in central Indiana, just in time for the IU football season opener Saturday and the Fourth Street Festival of the Arts and Crafts this weekend.

Brad Herold, hydro-meteorological technician at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Indianapolis, said forecasting the exact amount of rain and precise timing of the storm is difficult because of the unpredictable nature of tropical systems.

“The rainfall amounts we’ve been seeing out of the models and varying forecast models have varied quite a bit,” Herold said.

Rainfall is expected to start falling sometime early in the morning Saturday, with rain intensifying as the weekend progresses before dropping off Monday.

Herold said most tropical aftermath rain systems usually produce heavy rains and perhaps moderate winds, but usually don’t lead to further severe weather such as thunderstorms.

The IU football home opener at 8 p.m. Saturday will have to compete with whatever Hurricane Isaac, which was downgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday, throws its way.

J.D. Campbell, assistant athletic director for media relations, said IU Athletics is closely watching the weather situation, as they do with all potential weather conflicts.
He said all decisions regarding weather and games are made on a game-by-game basis.

“You just have to constantly monitor and make the appropriate decision at the appropriate time,” Campbell said.

The last IU game delayed by weather was on Sept. 23, 2006, against Connecticut.
The potentially heavy rain also threatens to wash out the Fourth Street Festival, a 35-year Bloomington tradition that drew more than 40,000 attendees last year.

Fourth Street Festival President Martina Celerin said she’s been constantly monitoring the weather and communicating with City of Bloomington, fire and police officials to determine the best course of action for responding to the inclement weather.

Organizers have never had to deal with an intense weather system as they may encounter this weekend, Celerin said.

The festival’s planning committee is currently discussing options to ensure the safety of patrons and artists, some of whom are travelling across the country to display their artwork.

Celerin said she expects to announce publicly a final decision Friday.

“We’re walking around with crossed fingers,” she said. “It’s hard to paint with crossed fingers, but it’s what we have to do.”

With the possible heavy weekend rain, there is a flash flooding concern, Herold said.
Coming out of the dry summer, the ground can be hard. In some soil types, Herold said, this creates an inability for heavy rains to absorb into the ground.

“Well right now the rivers are low and lakes and reservoirs are on the lower side,” Herold said. “It’ll probably be more street flooding and small streams overflowing.”

All of Indiana is still abnormally dry, but the percentage of the state categorized as being in severe drought dropped from about 81 percent to about 64 percent, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
 
The final severity of the tropical storm aftermath in the Bloomington area is still up in the air, with developments constantly breaking.

Originally, models showed remnants heading due north into Indiana. Then they shifted to the northwest, Herold said.

Most recently, the system has slowed, meandering around the Gulf Coast.

“It’s moving slower than originally expected,” Herold said. “With the timing and positioning, that makes all the difference in regards to precipitation.”

Herold and Campbell both said the best way to be prepared is to stay informed.

“The best thing to do is keep an eye on the current conditions,” Herold said. “Tropical weather is more unpredictable. Any storm system is more unpredictable.”