History to repeat itself in voter turnout

Those who remember the surge of voters during the 2008 presidential election should not expect to see the same zeal when voters head to the polls Nov. 2, officials said.

According to the Indiana Election Division’s Voter Registration and Turnout Statistics, 70 percent of registered voters participated in the 2008 general election, compared to only 49 percent in 2004 and 43 percent in 2000.

But this year, officials expect a much lower turnout, and generally, less excitement about this election.

“It’s historical that off-year elections are not that heavily engaged in,” Monroe County Clerk Jim Fielder said. “That’s really sad because I just always look at it that if you have an opportunity to vote, you should vote.”

In the 2010 primary election on May 4, only 12 percent of the county’s registered voters came to the polls, as compared to 45 percent in 2008 and 13 percent at the last midterm election in 2006.

One issue, Fielder said, is that midterm elections do not generally get people as excited as presidential elections do. And even during presidential election years, other factors contribute to how many people turn up at the polls.

“Historically, unless you’ve got an election that really gets people fired up, like the Obama election in ’08, you’re not going to get people out,” he said. “We do see a better turnout, of course in presidential election years, but it’s all about the candidates, basically.”

Dale Simmons, co-general counsel for the Indiana Elections Division, echoed Fielder’s predictions for this year’s election.

“It’s a federal election but not a presidential election,” Simmons said. “My personal prediction is that it will be a lower turnout.”

The other reason officials expect a dramatic drop in voter turnout compared to 2008 is that the 2008 election was itself an anomaly.

“I think you probably got a one-time situation with 2008,” Fielder said. “I would be very surprised if we saw another turnout like that in our lifetime,”

But the low expectations of unremarkable midterm years combined with the sudden peak in political interest in the 2008 election has led to a 2010 midterm election in which no one can guess what the voter interest will be.

Fielder said this year’s early voter turnout has not been notably high, but they have seen a constant flow of people coming in. He said the service’s usage is encouraging to county officials.

“I try not to be a doomsayer about what the registration percentage or what the percentage turning out to vote is going to be,” Fielder said. “But we do have to look at the history.”