Hoosiers' crystal ball hazy

What a long, strange trip this will be.

Fresh off a more than disappointing 4-8 season, the Hoosiers can officially pack up 2009 and prepare to unfurl 2010. Returning next season are the figure heads of IU football in junior quarterback Ben Chappell, sophomore wide receiver Tandon Doss, and, of course, IU coach Bill Lynch.

But past that, the Hoosiers will enter their first season this decade with questions all around the board.  



Defensive youth movement

The list of seniors leaving the IU defense is staggering. Household names like Jammie Kirlew, Greg Middleton, Ray Fisher and Matt Mayberry are all graduating.

In fact, about 56 percent of the team’s total tackles will be gone next season.  

The biggest concerns for the Hoosiers defensively come from the defensive line and the secondary. It’s unknown how well sophomore defensive ends Fred Jones and Darius Johnson will lead because both were injured for most of 2009.  

Fortunately for IU, however, the men in the middle have proven their worth and then some. Freshmen defensive tackles Adam Replogle and Larry Black, Jr. had outstanding seasons, combining for 12.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.  

The Hoosiers will take their biggest hit in the secondary. Gone are safeties Austin Thomas and Nick Polk and their cornerback and leading return man with Fisher.

IU does have junior safety Jerimy Finch returning, and junior Adrian Burks played solid as a starter at this season’s end.

But, while the talents of the younger players stepping up is unknown, the voids in a secondary already ranked ninth in the Big Ten in passing defense cannot be ignored.  



Season of change?

To offset such changes in the defense, Lynch may have to dip into his talent pool and switch some positions. Last year, the big name switch was Fisher’s move from receiver to cornerback, and before that it was Polk’s move from receiver to safety. This year, junior wide receiver Mitchell Evans could be that name.

Evans appeared in all 13 games in 2007 at safety and special teams, even intercepting two passes against Western Michigan, and starting against Akron. With the Hoosiers stockpiled at receiver, his move would make sense.

They might miss him most in their Wildcat packages, but there is a new face coming in that could play the part just as well, if not better. 



Three names, how many games?

Freshman quarterback Edward Wright-Baker spent most of his first season at IU as the No. 2 quarterback. But having not touched the field once, he will have four more years of eligibility.  

The question is, how will he be used in his first of those four years?

Not only does he have the mobility and athleticism to run the ball, he has the arm to throw it. The Hoosiers scarcely passed with Evans running the show, allowing defenses to stack the box and stuff the run.  

With Wright-Baker behind center, defenses wouldn’t have that luxury.

It’s that kind of threat with multiple options that would make the Hoosiers an offensive force in the Big Ten. And with a defense that will probably allow its share of points, they’ll need that to win games in 2010.  



Expectations  

It’s been two years since the Hoosiers’ seven-win season in 2007, and in those two years, they have won a total of seven games, finishing in dead last in the conference both times.  

Still, when you play the “what-if” game, the 2009 Hoosiers could have been playing in a bowl game this month. Whether their close calls against Northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin were signs of life or mere flukes will be known by next October.  

Barring injury or catastrophic regression, the offense should be one of the conference’s best next season. The trio of Chappell at starting quarterback, Willis as running back and Doss as receiver will give Hoosier fans reason to be excited.  

That being said, if the Hoosiers don’t explode offensively with the talent and experience they possess, changes will need to be made at the top.  

Fans have lamented over offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s playcalling the past few years. Canada has done a remarkable job with Chappell and former IU quarterback Kellen Lewis in his time at IU, so if the offense struggles, finding a new play caller while keeping Canada aboard should be a top priority.  

Defensively, it’s never good to lose so many seniors but, on the bright side, that senior-led unit still allowed the most points in the Big Ten.

Perhaps a complete overhaul is just what they need to turn it around.  

It’s impossible to expect much from a last place team, and 2010 is going to be one of those “expect the worst, hope for the best” kind of years.