Indiana: The new swing state

For the first time in 44 years, no one knows what will happen in Indiana.

The new swing state has emerged, as recent polls show the race in the Hoosier state a dead heat. An WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll last week barely gave Barack Obama an edge against John McCain, 45.9 percent to 45.3 percent, while a Reuters/Zogby poll and a Rasmussen poll gave the Arizona senator a modest lead. Two other national polls showed the race tied in Indiana.

If that’s not enough to convince voters of the tight race, both Obama, McCain and their respective running mates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin have all visited the Hoosier state in a little more than a week. And though many believe Indiana is reliably Republican, only a few thousand showed up to McCain’s election eve rally, though two Obama rallies in the last month attracted more than 20,000 each.

No one’s denying that Indiana is a swing state – but what would it take to turn it blue?
“What surprises me is how Republicans seem to have been caught flat-footed by this,” said John Karaagac, a lecturer in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs who wrote a book on McCain in 2000. “I’m surprised they didn’t look at the trends in 2006 and acted accordingly.”

Democrats are convinced this is their year for the state to change. Karaagac agreed that when the economy is doing poor, voters tend to side with those who are not in control, giving the Democrats a clear advantage. Obama’s camp has been more energized and organized, including in Indiana.

“When you have organization, and when you have money, you’re going to use it,” Karaagac said, adding he believes McCain has taken Indiana for granted. The Arizona senator last visited on July 1, before making a brief stop Monday.

“McCain is not going into Democratic states. Obama is going to Republican states. So the best defense is a good offense,” Karaagac said. “I think that’s unacceptable. He should have matched Obama in Indiana time for time right here. ... A lot of people voting for McCain aren’t so much voting for McCain, but voting against Obama.”

William Bianco, a professor of political science at IU, said what is really riding on the election’s outcome is voter turnout. Because so many new voters were registered this year, many of whom are excited for Obama, he will need them to turn out to get a win, Bianco said.

“Indiana’s in play,” he said. “The $64 million dollar question is: Who votes tomorrow? Because we just don’t know how many new Democratic voters are going to turn out or how many one-time Republican voters are going to stay home.”

Because a lot of people who didn’t vote last time are saying they’ll vote this election, Bianco said it would be hard to judge who would win Indiana. A heavy turnout would favor Obama, especially because of the huge get-out-the-vote operation here, he said, citing the early vote vans on campus for Obama, but not McCain.

“The dynamics of the campaign is that McCain’s been on defense,” Bianco said. “This is not a state that McCain should be worried. That’s the astounding thing. If you want the best argument for predicting that Obama’s going to win the election, it’s that the election’s been fought out on states that were red last time.”

But Marc Lotter, communications director for the McCain campaign in Indiana said he doesn’t think Obama’s tax plans are something most Hoosiers support, calling Indiana a “fundamentally conservative state.”

Jonathan Swain, communication director for the Obama campaign in Indiana, said though the polls couldn’t entirely predict the outcome, they showed how much of a toss-up Indiana had become. He said the combination of Obama committing time and resources to Indiana in addition to the tough economy were reasons why Indiana was still in play.

But with several last minute-GOP visits, Swain said it’s an “indication that the Republicans and McCain campaign in Indiana are concerned.”

“They know that here in Indiana it is about getting your voters to the polls,” he said.
Justin Hill, chairman of IU Students for John McCain said he knew Indiana was a battleground state, but wouldn’t call it a swing state because he was certain the state would stay red.

“The polls are not evaluating the people that are making the decisions in the last couple days,” Hill said.

Obama has had three rallies in Indiana since he officially became the nominee in August – two of which drew more than 20,000 supporters. He will even make a stop today in Indianapolis before heading to his election night rally in Chicago.

Bianco said too much could happen to predict the outcome but that most factors pointed toward an Obama victory.

“Things have to break right for McCain in order to him to win,” Bianco said. “Obama can actually have a lot of things go wrong and still pull out the election. ... McCain, as they say, has to run the table. Everything has to go right for him.”