Winter of discontent

2008 proffered an unusually harsh spring in Indiana, and I think we both know I’m not talking about the freeze that didn’t lift til May. No, Hoosier nation was in a well-documented tailspin that began slowly last October and took off like a bell curve in April.

Such was the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son of Crean.
Guess what, kids? It’s not summer anymore.

Sure, the solstice technically comes Sept. 22. But summer ends on Labor Day, and the IU basketball team’s era of good feelings came to a halt this afternoon with the announcement of the Big Ten schedule, soon followed by IU’s own 2008-2009 slate.

Have you ever been on a long drive, and down the highway the horizon gets dark and unpleasant? Yeah, it’s kind of like that.

The Hoosiers’ schedule starts rough and gets no better. Between the Maui Invitational, trips to Wake Forest and Kentucky, a home game against Cornell and a date at fresh-as-new-shoes Lucas Oil Stadium with Gonzaga, IU will have plenty of gut-check games on their horizon this year. I didn’t even mention the Big Ten schedule, by the end of which Tom Crean’s lads might have played as many as 11 teams that made last year’s field of 65.

Please realize I’m not criticizing the Hoosiers for their scheduling decisions. IU baseball coach Tracy Smith once told me he likes loading his schedule with good teams early in the season, because then he knows what kind of team he’s got and quick. I agree, and I think it’s the best approach for the Hoosiers this year.

Let’s go ahead and face the obvious truth that finishing .500 would be a real victory for IU this year. Any tournament play beyond conference action up in Indianapolis is about as out of reach as Hickory’s chances of making the state finals. So as coach Dale said, “Let’s just keep it right there.”

It makes sense to toss these baby Hoosiers into the fire quickly. No, better, it would be to test them right away than pad stats and mask weaknesses – of which there will surely be many.

But what kind of season will IU really have, other than a long one? I’m glad you asked.
The season will begin simply enough, with exhibition rollovers against Anderson and Bemidji State. Fans ought to hope IU takes games one and two against Northwestern State and IUPUI, respectively.

The Jaguars make the drive down State Route 37 after their last campaign saw them come within one game of the NCAAs, and they’ve got height IU doesn’t – eight players stand 6-foot-6 or taller. Bloomington’s forgotten stepchild to the north will bring some talent and likely a chip on their shoulder, but IU will win this close contest.

Maui has all the potential of a train wreck, though IU could make a gigantic statement and step forward with a win over Notre Dame and either Texas or St. Joseph’s, who they’ll face in the second game. My gut says that won’t happen, but the Hoosiers will pick up a win – likely over Chaminade – in the seventh-place game.

It gets no easier after Thanksgiving, with defending Ivy League champions Cornell, the ACC’s Wake Forest and perennial West Coast power Gonzaga on tap. Texas Christian ought to be a win, Kentucky almost assuredly the opposite, and two cupcakes to round out the old year should leave IU at 6-6 when they hit Big Ten play.

Early trips to Iowa, Ohio State and Illinois – with a visit from Michigan in between – will let the world know the mettle Crean’s boys developed running the gauntlet of the toughest non-conference schedule IU has had since the Mike Davis administration.

It certainly gets no easier, with trips to Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin and a likely tougher Minnesota team – and return dates from all the aforementioned except Purdue. The Hoosiers ought to be competitive – I’ve rarely seen an IU squad that wasn’t when times were toughest – but they’re going to be outmanned, outgunned and outsized too often to be more than pesky in the Big Ten.

Call me a cynic (or an Atlanta Falcons fan, same difference), but I see the Hoosiers picking up just four conference wins, all at home. Mark down ‘Ws’ in Assembly Hall against Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and – the jewel – an overrated Illinois squad.

That puts the Hoosiers’ record at 10-20, not bad for a team with almost no size and even less experience.

Make that another winter of discontent.

See you tomorrow.