Professors: Change in party control will hurt Bush

As Democrats looked poised to take control of the U.S. House early Wednesday, IU political science professors disagreed about the effects of the shift. However, they did agree that the change would lead to one thing: more gridlock in Congress.\nAnalysts predict more gridlock with a split Congress than in recent years, when both the House and Senate were under Republican control. However, some experts are leaving open the option of significant policy changes to emerge from the reshuffling. In addition, a Democratic Congress could spell disaster for President Bush's often-uncontested efforts at social conservatism over the past six years, said IU political science professor Fabio Rojas. \n"The main outcome is that the president's initiatives may not go through (Congress)," Rojas said. "Because the same party before had control of both houses, most of what the president wanted has gone through." \nOthers experts say that not only would executive policies fail to pass, but virtually all proposals would face defeat in a divided Congress.\n"It is still a divided government. Even if you have control, very little is likely to get done," said Brian Rathbun, assistant professor of political science. "We will see quite a bit of bickering for who is responsible and for why things are not getting done." \nDespite this pessimism, some analysts believe a Democratic House could set certain bills into motion on a number of issues -- especially \nimmigration. IU political science professor Russell Hanson said immigration is an area for potential progress. \nRathbun agreed, saying the new Congress might be able to avoid some of the contested issue's previous hiccups.\n"The House was the stumbling point with amnesty for immigrants," he said. "This could now be an area where we see some results."\nEven if Congress resumes the immigration debate soon, there is still a widely held belief the Democrats will not look to pursue a radical reform of hot-button issues like Iraq or the president's streak of social conservatism, professors said.\n"The House is not going to touch acts that have already been passed," Rathbun said. "They are often losing issues. As soon as they touch them, people will say, 'Look at the moral miscreants you voted into office.'"\nHow Democrats will use their newfound authority is yet to be seen, but if many live up to campaign promises, Bush could be faced with a dilemma: Concede to a centrist Congress or fight to save works from the past six years. \n"This president has been amazing in his ability to stick to his guns regardless of what is going on," said IU professor of political science Gerald Wright. \nHe added that Bush's unwillingness to compromise has often led to success in getting bills passed. \n"I doubt that he will roll over. He will probably go out fighting," Wright said.\nWith talk of Bush on his way out and chatter among 2008 presidential hopefuls having already begun, Republicans will begin criticizing Democratic leadership in hopes of regaining votes that were lost Tuesday.\n"The Democrats are screwed. They will be in a position of responsibility," Rathbun said. "If areas like Iraq and health care do not get any better, (the Democrats) can be blamed as being an obstruction to these things.\n"It could be a kind of blessings from the skies to have lost these elections"