The NBA draft puzzles again

Tuesday night, the Toronto Raptors landed the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft after having only an 8.8 percent chance of doing so. With the shallowest draft pool since I can remember, Toronto's beating of the odds will likely go down as the biggest story of the 2006 NBA Draft.\nBesides giving Canadians the obvious water cooler joke of the day: "The Raptors actually beat something?", the top pick in this year's draft won't be good for too much. Just think back to about this time last year.\nAndrew Bogut was such a consensus that he was answering questions about obscure eyesight problems he had as a kid -- which is really almost laughable now. And Marvin Williams was made out to be such an obvious second pick that the Hawks drafted him to become more a part of a collection of out-of-place swingmen than a member of a professional basketball team.\nKing James was ordained 2003's top pick probably in May 2002. And in May 2003, SportsCenter viewers had long been subjected to clips of Dwight Howard humiliating high-school kids.\nMy point is, by this time of year, the draft results are usually so obvious that Around the Horn panelists and overly-analytical analysts have long stopped predicting the likely top picks. They have instead already turned their attention to fringe issues -- like Bogut's left eye -- somehow ignoring problems that even casual hoops fans can pick up on -- like Williams not even being a starter on his college team.\nBut May 2006 is about to come to a close and what do we have? An awkward pool of potential No. 1 picks. I don't really see how any GM could be comfortable wasting a No. 1 pick on any of them.\nLaMarcus Aldridge of Texas is on top of some boards, and UConn's Rudy Gay was the favorite at the start of the college season. Tyrus Thomas' play throughout LSU's tournament run put him into consideration, and Adam Morrison plays a little like Larry Bird. The flavor of the moment is the 7-foot Italian Andrea Bargnani, whose 47 percent from 3-point range is making scouts see Nowitzki all over again.\nBut the blatant underlying fact is none of these guys, with the exception of Morrison, averaged more than 15 points per game in their respective leagues last year. The majority of them are only receiving attention because of strong play late in the season. This is indicative of one thing: that GM's are drafting solely on the basis of potential. And the whole potential thing really just makes me uncomfortable -- especially with a draft this shallow.\nBargnani's percentages do make him look like Dirk, until you look a little further in the stat columns to realize he only averaged 11 points per game in the Euroleague and the Italian league. He quickly looks less like Nowitzki and more like the big, awkward foreign guy who is allergic to the paint.\nBest case scenario with Gay: the Raptors end up with a more athletic version of Scottie Pippen. And he definitely has the build to play like Pippen, but he certainly didn't look much like Pippen in college, so why would he against better competition?\nNone of it makes any sense to me.\nIf I was Raptors' GM Jerry Colangelo -- and this would take some serious stones -- I would draft Marcus Williams from UConn. You know what you're getting with Williams: a proven point guard who runs the team and distributes the ball. And with Mike James' likely departure into free agency, Toronto will be hard-pressed for a floor general.\nJ.J. Redick is like Williams. You know exactly what Redick brings to the table: the ability to knock down open shots and provide a viable kick out option if a more dominant player is being doubled. In fact, if Cleveland somehow ends up with him, LeBron needs to pick him up at the airport and immediately make best friends with him.\nNow I realize such ideas are somewhat unrealistic, so the true No. 1 pick should be Morrison. He's a proven energy guy who can knock down 3-pointers, probably somewhere in between Larry Legend and Brian Cardinal.\nThe reason for taking proven, solid guys, instead of sifting for the potential stud? \nIt's pretty tough to play the potential game in a draft that really lacks potential.