Spring break-ing down the field

While all of y'all are living it up in Florida, the Bahamas -- heck, anywhere warm -- bubbles will be burst, dreams will be crushed, and the unthinkable will happen. \nIt's the NCAA Tournament, and there just isn't anything else like it. \nWithout the brackets set, it's nearly impossible to pick a Final Four, but I'll handicap the field for you in what might be the most wide-open tourney in years.\nYou may want to get a pen and paper to write some of these tips down. I'm not kidding. I have won two out of the last three pools I've entered, cracked www.ESPN.com's Top 50 in the Bracket Challenge and consider myself an expert. The one year I didn't win happened to be the year IU went all the way to the championship game, but even the drunken town idiot in Bedford thought we'd be long gone by then. \nTip #1: Stay away from the mid-majors this year. I know a lot of experts and analysts have been jumping on these smaller schools' bandwagon, but this year is not the year for a Cinderella tale. Not even Gonzaga is a lock, as a second-round loss may be in the cards for the 'Zags. \nThe only mid-major team that might make the Sweet Sixteen would be Southern Illinois. Even though the Salukis (25-4) lost in their conference tourney, they'll still get an at-large bid and play better defense than Alan Dershowitz. \nStay away from Utah State (25-2), East Tennessee State (27-5) and Manhattan (23-5). Don't let Sports Illustrated or Dickey V change your mind. The mid-majors aren't up to par of years past. \nTip #2: Don't fall in love with either St. Joe's or Stanford. The Hawks have a great backcourt, but if their shots don't fall, they don't have anyone in the paint who can take the load off. \nStanford has been living dangerously all year, and any team that needs a desperation heave against a Washington State Cougar team doesn't stand a chance. Stay away from Cincinnati, Florida and Arizona. These teams could break your heart and care more about the showtime dunk than they do defense.\nTip #3: Who are the favorites to make it to the Alamo? \nWe all know Duke has the talent to make a deep run. It has big bodies and lights-out shooters, not to mention probably the best freshman in the country in Luol Deng. Duke is a safe bet, despite some recent losses. \nI don't think Kentucky has what it takes this year. It is too thin, both in the frontcourt and backcourt and its tournament fate is as predictable as an Ashley Judd thriller -- Sweet Sixteen before losing to Texas (if it happens, I deserve a plaque). \nMississippi State, Oklahoma State and Pitt are as good as anybody in the country, and I wouldn't be surprised if they made their way through the tournament to San Antonio.\nTip #4: Find a sleeper. Every good bracket needs a sleeper. There's always one team you didn't think would ever make it as far as it did. Sometimes even two. But be careful when picking a sleeper -- don't try to be too bold because if the team bows out early, you're done for. You always want to pick a sleeper based on how the bracket shakes out, but here are some teams to keep an eye on for now. \nThe Wolfpack of N.C. State is worth a look. Sure, it hasn't beaten any notables outside of the ACC, but any ACC team has a chance (watch Wake Forest, too). \nWe'll stay in the same state, different conference. Watch out for UNC-Charlotte. The 49ers tied with a bevy of other teams for the C-USA title and have road victories both at Syracuse and at Southern Illinois, two very difficult places to play. Bobby Lutz has a team loaded with shooters and bodies, and will be a tough out for anyone. \nThe Big Ten teams might surprise. Sure, there may only be three of them, but all three are qualified to stir up some trouble. I think both Wisconsin and Michigan State will make a run, and the Spartans, I believe, are locks for the Sweet Sixteen. As for Wisconsin, as Devin Harris goes, so do the Badgers. He's hot right now, but if he struggles, so will Wisconsin. \nTake my knowledge for what it's worth, but remember: I'm one of the best. I used to give Rick Neuheisel bracket tips and look where he's at now. \nLove the madness.