I'm the first to admit to being a sucker for award shows. No matter how hokey, silly or self-serving they may be, something about them draws me in, and I end up watching, stunned, like a deer in headlights.\nNo award ceremony entrances me more than the first, oldest and most prestigious of any in the entertainment industry -- the Oscars. Regardless of any injustices carried out by Oscar in the past ("Shakespeare in Love" defeating "Saving Private Ryan" for Best Picture in 1999; a total lack of love for Martin Scorsese), these awards manage to be the most legitimate ass-kissing ritual in Hollywood.\nThis year's Oscars are setting themselves up to be the most satisfying in recent memory. Heavyweights such as "The Return of the King" and "Pirates of the Carribean" will go head to head against the likes of indie gems "Lost in Translation" and "City of God." Who will triumph? Other than the Best Animated Short Film, Best Live Action Short Film and Best Short Subject Documentary categories (of which I cannot claim to have seen any of the nominated films), I believe I've got it figured out.
Best Animated Film: "Finding Nemo" -- Andrew Stanton\nOne might think that "Nemo" is a lock here, but France's "Les Triplettes de Belleville" has some serious buzz behind it. Even though I'm apparently the only human being with a heart black enough not to cherish Pixar's every move, I'll go ahead and call "Nemo," but don't be blown away if there's an upset.\nBest Foreign Film: "The Twilight Samurai" (Japan) -- Yoji Yamada\nLook for Japan's booming cinema industry to be acknowledged here with a win for the wonderful "Twilight Samurai." I wonder if the Academy ever screened "Battle Royale?"\nBest Documentary: "The Fog of War" -- Errol Morris\n"Capturing the Friedmans" is a frightening look at a family turned upside-down by a pedophiliac father, but Errol Morris' "The Fog of War," a searing portrayal of former Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara and his involvement in the Vietnam conflict, will take this award easily. However, don't expect a genius Michael Moore-esque acceptance speech.\nBest Costume Design / Makeup: "The Last Samurai" / "The Return of the King"\nThe costumes in "Last Samurai" were extremely historically accurate, and that authenticity will rise above the rest. "Return of the King" deserves the makeup award simply for the sheer amount of it. You can't beat the overt "Goonies" reference embodied by the Orc army leader.\nBest Cinematography / Film Editing: "Cold Mountain" -- John Seale / "City of God" -- Daniel Rezende\nNo love for "Kill Bill" in these categories is a huge mistake. "Cold Mountain" will likely get its only Oscar for cinematography. The beautiful vistas of Romania look eerily like the American South circa the 1860's. The jarring look of "City of God" is enough to assure it Best Editing.\nBest Visual Effects: "The Return of the King" -- WETA Digital\nNo contest. WETA Digital will garner the "LOTR" trilogy this award for the third year in a row. No other film this year was so adept at making audiences gasp at green screen shots and computer generated images.\nBest Adapted Screenplay / Original Screenplay: "American Splendor" by Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman / "Lost in Translation" by Sofia Coppola\nIt was a truly wondrous effort by Peter Jackson and his harem to develop a classic work of literature into a movie for the masses, but Pulcini and Berman deserve Best Adapted Screenplay for "American Splendor," an absolutely biting and hilarious film about satirist Harvey Pekar that no one (in Indiana) saw. Nothing could make Bill Murray more entrancing an actor than he already is, except maybe for an original screenplay as good as Coppola's for "Lost in Translation." Her father Francis taught her well.\nBest Supporting Actress: Holly Hunter -- "Thirteen"\nSince her Golden Globe win, most probably think Renee Zelwegger is a lock for "Cold Mountain." Not so fast, lovers of the spooky, purse-lipped one. Holly Hunter was blazing in "Thirteen," and I believe Oscar will reward her.\nBest Supporting Actor: Ken Watanabe -- "The Last Samurai"\nSean Astin should have gotten a nomination for his work in "The Return of the King." Tim Robbins won the Golden Globe for "Mystic River," but I think the Academy will revert to its politics of two years ago and reward Watanabe's fiery performance.\nBest Actress: Charlize Theron -- "Monster"\nNaomi Watts, smartly nominated here for "21 Grams," wins my personal Hottest Babe Award but Charlize Theron's hell raising, completely de-glammed turn as a sadistic killer will win her this one.\nBest Actor: Bill Murray -- "Lost in Translation"\nRough competition in this category, as is always the case. Sean Penn won the Golden Globe for dramatic actor in "Mystic River," but it was just the kind of performance we expected out of him. Johnny Depp brilliantly channeled Keith Richards in "Pirates of the Carribean," but Bill Murray's heartwrenching but hilarious performance should get him on stage, holding a little golden naked man for the first time, and rightly so.\nBest Director: Peter Jackson -- "The Return of the King"\nIt would be an absolute crime not to give Peter Jackson this award. To finally reward his seven years of continuous work on the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy is the only course of action here. To do otherwise would be a travesty.\nBest Picture of the Year: "The Return of the King"\nFinally, after both "The Fellowship of the Ring" and "The Two Towers" were nominated for the Best Picture Oscar and lost to far inferior films ("A Beautiful Mind" and "Chicago" respectively), the trilogy will be honored rightwise. "Lost in Translation" is a spark of genius, "Mystic River" is powerful and moving (if only slightly overrated), "Master and Commander" is harrowing and "Seabiscuit" is inspiring, but "The Return of the King" will surely receive the vote of every member of the Academy.
