Unpredictability keeps NFL fans excited

Paul Tagliabue really has a good thing going.\nAs commissioner of the National Football League for the past 12 years, Tagliabue has pulled the right strings and made the right changes to shape the NFL into the most exciting sports league in America. Meanwhile, Major League Baseball appears to have taken steps in the wrong direction.\nThe parity in the NFL is what sets it apart from competing leagues. A look at the division winners in the past four seasons -- this one included -- shows just how balanced and unpredictable the NFL can be.\nWith six divisions, there have been 24 division titles up for grabs in those last four years. Twenty-one different teams have claimed those division crowns. Simple math will tell you that means only three teams (Jacksonville, Minnesota and the Giants) have won more than one division title since the 1997-98 campaign. Only the Jaguars, in 1998 and 1999, won back-to-back.\nComparing the previous figures to ones from Major League Baseball helps put them in perspective. MLB also has six divisions, so there have also been 24 division title opportunities in the last four years. But only 13 teams have managed to win those titles. The Atlanta Braves have won division titles in each of the four previous seasons; the Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees have all won three in four years. \nTo break it down even further, only 43 percent of MLB teams have won divisions in that time span, compared to 68 percent of NFL teams.\nThe balance in the NFL is one of the main factors that keeps fans and players excited and optimistic about their teams' chances year after year. \nThey know on any given week any team can knock off another team. They also know that, while rare, it is possible for a team to go from a last-place finish one year to winning its division and even the Super Bowl the next, just as the St. Louis Rams did last season. Turnarounds like the one the Rams experienced just do not happen in baseball, or in other sports, for that matter.\nSeveral factors lead to the differences in competition between MLB and the NFL. The short schedule in football does make it easier for teams to get hot, play above their talent level and make surprise entrances into the playoffs. But the main discrepancy is the salary cap, which helps keep the playing field fairly level in the NFL. \nMajor League Baseball has no such cap, and as a result, rich teams in large media markets have an obvious advantage. Teams with tiny payrolls often do not have realistic chances to make the playoffs, and their fans and players know it. That is why the Montreal Expos only draw 7,000 or 8,000 fans every home game. Players often do not want to play for teams that do not have a reasonable shot at making the post-season. The huge gap in payrolls is also the reason we have the same teams winning year after year in baseball. For the most part, situations like these do not exist in football.\nIf you want more proof, just look at the four teams still alive in the NFL playoffs -- Baltimore, Oakland, N.Y. Giants and Minnesota -- none of whom were still playing at this time last year. Baltimore, Oakland and New York did not even make the playoffs a year ago.\nBut do not expect to see the Minnesota Twins playing the Florida Marlins in the World Series this October. Cinderella stories are nonexistent in baseball these days.\nMLB commissioner Allan "Bud" Selig has acknowledged the disparity in baseball and tried to take steps to close the gap, but he has been met with avid opposition. Trying to institute a salary cap led to the 1994 strike, and the issue threatens to stop play again in the near future.\nBaseball players and some owners refuse to swallow their pride and accept a cap, but if they looked at the recent history of the NFL they might have a change of heart. The NFL had to suffer through a work stoppage in the early-1980s, but necessary changes resulted in subsequent years. Those changes, along with other adjustments made by Tagliabue, such as the unbalanced schedule that makes it harder for division winners to repeat, have led the NFL into the 21st century as the premier professional sports league in the nation.\nMajor League Baseball might want to take notes.