I wanted to believe this year would be like last year. I really did. When I sat down to fill out my bracket, I had every intention of picking multiple double-digit seeds to make the Sweet Sixteen and at least one Final Four team that would have had to go through multiple higher seeds to get there.
Instead, even after much reconsideration, I ended up with a Final Four of Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State and North Carolina, two 1s and two 2s. Harvard is the only team lower than an 8-seed in my Sweet Sixteen, and I had only three first round upsets.
So what does this all mean?
Actually, I think it means the selection committee deserves a round of applause. All in all, they got it right this year. Each of the 1-seeds has a valid argument for the accolade with only a few exceptions, most teams are seeded right about where they belong.
This year's field boasts uncommon depth from 3-8 in most regions with those teams all pretty evenly matched and often capable of knocking off 1s and 2s. Case in point: I have 8-seed Memphis beating Michigan State and 7-seed St. Mary's taking out Kansas in the round of 32. In each case, I see the winner then defeating another 5-or-lower seed to then reach the Elite Eight.
So this may not be the year of a Cinderella run from a 12-seed. Instead, the story of these next few weeks could be the story of a number of 5-, 6- and 7-seeds reaching the Sweet Sixteen and giving 1s and 2s all they can handle, then ultimately letting those talent-laden power schools duke it out. And maybe that's okay.
Prediction: I hate to be this boring, but I just have a hard time not predicting the two most talented teams in the field (Kentucky and North Carolina) to make the final. I believe success in the tournament often comes down to living up to potential and no teams have more than these two. In the final, for better or worse, the John Calipari freshman-based system finally works, the Wildcats win a close one, 81-75, and IU fans can at least claim to have gone 1-1 against the national champion.
