Pulling the upset tonight will still be a tall order for IU wrestlers, but tonight's match against mighty Minnesota just got a little more interesting with the news that Sonny Yohn, ranked 5th nationally by Intermat at 197 for the Golden Gophers, will probably not be in the lineup tonight. What would have likely been the closest match of the night just turned into a big opportunity for bonus points for Matt Powless and IU. Here's how the two teams stack up against each other and how I think tonight's action might pan out:
125 lbs.: Justin Brooks (12-11) vs. #5 Zach Sanders (17-2)
Frankly, Brooks has not impressed me very much thus far this year, but that could very well be a product of his opponents. Brooks has already faced several members of the top 10, and at some point, this trial-by-fire season for redshirt freshman is bound to pay off. That said, I doubt that moment will be tonight against the All-American Sanders. If he wrestles smart, he can minimize the damage to the team score, but a win would take a minor miracle. Prediction: Sanders by major decision
133 lbs.: Matt Ortega (14-9) vs. David Thorn (7-5)
The only match of the night to feature no ranked wrestlers, this toss-up could be crucial to to IU's upset chances. Thorn clearly has talented bloodlines (see below), but Ortega is more experienced and is riding the momentum of three pins in three matches last Sunday. That should carry him to a narrow win tonight. Prediction: Ortega by decision
141 lbs.: Mitchell Richey (13-12) vs. #2 Mike Thorn (25-1)
His record may not show it, but Richey has quietly put together a surprising season as a true freshman and is gaining a reputation for making his opponents work for everything they get against him. At some point, he will pull off a big upset. I doubt that will be tonight, but I think he will at least prevent the elder Thorn for scoring any bonus points on him. Prediction: Thorn by decision
149 lbs.: #15 Kurt Kinser (19-6) vs. Danny Zilverberg (12-7)
Kinser has had a few tough losses this year that have dropped him in the rankings, but I predict this week marks the beginning of his rise back up the rankings. He hit a pair of his trademark headlocks last Sunday and wrestled extremely well defensively. I do not see that changing tonight. IU needs its studs like Kinser to get bonus points for a shot at winning tonight, and I think he gets them. Prediction: Kinser by pin
157 lbs.: #6 Paul Young (20-6) vs. Joe Grygelko (3-4)
Young reaggravated a knee injury against SIUE on Sunday and sat out the final match against Gardner-Webb, but told me afterwards that he could have wrestled had the match been in doubt. He was limited in practice this week, but coach Duane Goldman told me that he does not expect anyone to sit out with injuries, including Young. Assuming he is good to go tonight, this is another big opportunity to accumulate some bonus points for IU. At full strength, Young would have a great shot at a pin or tech fall here. As it is, though, I expect him to still win, but any bonus points will be just that, a bonus. Prediction: Young by major decision
165 lbs.: Ryan LeBlanc (7-5) vs. #7 Cody Yohn (19-6)
LeBlanc seems to wrestle his best agianst top competition and is still showing signs of future stardom, but I do not see him pulling the upset against Yohn. The key will be whether or not he can avoid giving up bonus points as IU tries to defend their potential lead at this point. Prediction: Yohn by decision
174 lbs.: Nick Avery (9-11) vs. #8 Scott Glasser (21-6)
With the exception of a few bright moments, Avery has been the weakpoint in the Hoosier lineup all season, and a match against a top 10-ranked senior is not the place to turn that around. Luckily for the team score, Glasser rarely pins, but bonus points seem a near inevitability. Prediction: Glasser by major decision
184 lbs.: Eric Cameron (12-12) vs. #8 Kevin Steinhaus (21-6)
After a slow start to the year, Cameron is starting to round back into his past form as of recent. Steinhaus looks like a present and future star and will likely emerge victorious, but I anticipate a reinvigorated Cameron to make it closer than a lot of people think. Prediction: Steinhaus by decision
197 lbs.: #6 Matt Powless (27-2) vs. Joe Nord (8-4)
There is not much to say about Powless that has not already been said. The man has simply been damn near unstoppable this season. He is currently third in the country and first in the Big Ten in wins, and his 11 major decisions lead the nation. I believe he would have won even if the elder Yohn had been healthy, but against the back-up Nord, Powless has a strong shot at vital bonus points. Prediction: Powless by tech fall
Heavyweight (285 lbs.): #19 Ricky Alcala (21-6) vs. #7 Tony Nelson (18-2)
At this point in this hypothetical meet, the score stands at 18-17 in IU's favor, so this match is for all the marbles. With Yohn out, this becomes the only match between two ranked wrestlers, and they could not be more different. Nelson is a somewhat undersized but very talented freshman who has rocketed up the rankings as of late. Alcala looks rather unimposing at first, but as soon as the match starts his deceptive speed on shots and strong riding ability come into play. The senior transfer has wrestled consistently all year. In this battle between talent and experience, I think experience wins in a low scoring upset. Prediction: Alcala by decision
Final Score: Indiana 21, Minnesota 17
This would obviously be a big upset for IU, but I don't think I'm going out on any especially long limbs with these predictions. I doubt the Hoosiers would ever outscore the Golden Gophers in a tournament format, but in a dual, with Yohn injured, IU has a very solid chance at a season-defining win. 133 pounds and Heavyweight are really the only toss-ups as I see it, but I think the fact that Minnesota is sending out freshmen at those weights bodes well for IU. The match will be decided by who wins those and how many bonus points are scored by Minnesota at 125, 141, 165, 174 and 184 and IU at 149, 157 and 197.
Check back here later tonight for results and other news from the match, and check out Tuesday's IDS for complete coverage.
