After reading through the comments responding to my previous two posts, some want to get the lineup conversation underway.
So, who's in and who's out? Let's start at the point guard, or the one.
I'm going to be up front and honest when I say that I do not think Indiana Mr. Basketball Jordan Hulls will contribute as a starter once the season gets going. It may be premature, but that is my take on the situation right now and it is what readers have asked for. After watching him in the state championship at Conseco Fieldhouse, under the spotlight of all spotlights, it was apparent that he has a good shot, but not great size. This does not bode well for Hulls, as the Big Ten has even more so in recent years developed a reputation as being one of the most physical conferences in the country. That would limit him to playing a one until he is able to put on significant size.
Hulls had a good game at Conseco while tallying 14 points, but it was obvious he did not have the ability to take over the game. He was not able to create penetration or consistently make space between him and his defender in order to get a look. Not being able to do that right now, I don't see how he can take Verdell Jones III's spot and surpass Jerimiah Rivers at the same time, especially with Jones really coming on at the end of the season.
The point guard mix is by far the most up-in-the air topic of conversation right now because of Rivers' eligibility. Rivers, who averaged over 20 minutes a game as a true freshman on Georgetown's Final Four team back in 2007, only adds to the depth IU will possess next year.
The shooting guard position to me is the most interesting position battle coming into the fall. Devan Dumes had some games, such as the contest against Northwestern in Evanston, where he really found his stroke and became automatic from behind the arc. With an up and coming Jones at the one, I think Crean has got to consider Dumes as solely a two. Dumes' defensive tenacity and leadership is also something that he brings to the table. Don't forget, Dumes was one of the very few people on last year's team with previous collegiate basketball experience. The other side of the story is Matt Roth. The 29 he dropped against Ohio State was "one of the most amazing things" Thad Matta had ever seen. Two problems exist. One is Roth's consistency, which I think can and will improve as workouts and open gyms get underway. The other is the defensive edge Dumes has on Roth. Roth's inability to control penetration from the wing to the block is something that hurt him last year. Nonetheless, with two solid shooters and one above average defender on the perimeter, Hoosier fans have something to be happy about.
The three, or small forward, is Christian Watford's position to lose, in my opinion. I know that is a bad attitude for any player, especially any freshman, to have. I don't see it any other way from a media standpoint. Watford's ability to take his perimeter defender low and score, or simply beat a forward or center in the post is something of which IU will be in dire need. Freshman and Tipton, IN native Derek Elston does not bring as much versatility to the table as Watford, but has got to be ready to immediately serve as a role player with the loss of Story, who contributed at the three in addition to the two.
There are two scenarios that affect power forward position going into next season. Let's look at the first, where Crean elects to play one forward. Everyone saw what Tom Pritchard was capable of early in the season, but also his weaknesses and the challenges he faced as teams found out how to limit him. I think that Pritchard will develop into even more of an asset to this team as his footwork improves and he continues to gain experience. I am going to bank on Pritchard starting at the four because of the size and experience factors compared to incoming freshman Bobby Capobianco. However, as Capobianco gets his feet under him, an intense position battle could very well arise.
That leaves the five slot for Bawa Muniru and Tijan Jobe. In my mind, Jobe, who played above average perimeter defense on more than one occasion last year, still lacks the basketball mechanics and IQ that would grant him a starting spot with the presence of 6'11'' freshman Bawa Muniru. I really believe it is as simple as that regarding the center position.
Now, the second scenario, which closely resembles the 2008-2009 squad, is where Crean would play two forwards, and sit someone like Muniru or Jobe. Heading into October, I think this is what Capobianco is hoping for in order to show his stuff and make a statement regarding his ability to compete out of the gates. If Crean feels his team compete at an equal level with another forward on the floor as opposed to a center, look for similar offensive sets to those from a year ago.
There you have it, agree or disagree. Preseason practices should be pretty interesting for each individual player. Take the forward position as an example: if the Crean elects to go with two pure forwards, Derek Elston and Capobianco could be fighting for a starting spot. But if a center takes action, they will be fighting for the first forward coming off of the bench.
Feel free to voice your thoughts. God bless.
