As promised. Let's get to work.
Andrew Means: Simply put, Means is gone. The Reds told him they had him a bit higher, but one thing to remember is that the First-Year Player Draft is rather different from other professional drafts. After the first few rounds, each team usually has it's own distinct draft board that doesn't overlap much with others. In other words, it's not as much of a risk to let a player fall a few rounds to address other needs unless you know others have a real interest as well.
Means will agree to play short season ball and come back in the fall for his senior football season. The Reds have reason to believe he could be a pro football prospect, but I've heard they pretty much fell in love with him after an individual workout he had days ago.
What does this mean for the Hoosiers? Means is a great player and a great leader, but he's not irreplaceable. His speed will hurt, but almost every other player in the lineup this year - and a few on the bench - have the ability to be offensive catalysts. Means will be missed, but don't be surprised if the team's replacement isn't more than adequate, if not just as good by the end.
Blake Monar: Monar slipped a very, very long way. He was projected as a 3-6 round pick by some, and I even saw and heard talk that put him in the second round.
Alas, don't make the mistake of thinking this will temper his expectations. He will still ask for third-round money, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets it. The Yankees were one of two teams (Cubs were the other) that coveted Monar's many curving and sliding pitches, and they are the Yankees after all.
Most importantly, as I said before, the First-Year Draft isn't like the NFL or the NBA where a player's draft position is directly tied to his contract offer. Each team places it's own value on each player based on position but also potential and what kind of projections the team has for how the player will develop, where they will develop, etc.
If the Yankees can sign some of their top pitching picks, then they won't have to give Monar third-round money. But if they can't come to agreements with some of their higher picks - and it happens all the time with the First-Year Draft - then they'll have no problem paying Monar more money that it would seem a 25th-rounder was worth, because they coveted him far more highly than that.
Why, you ask, did no one else take Monar? Because they knew of his demands, and they didn't see him having that much value. But the Yankees did, and they've got money to burn.
That said, Monar has expressed to Ryan and others a real desire to come to campus, and as one of my earlier links indicated, college players seem to be getting more attention at the top levels of the draft these days.
It will all come down to how much money the Yankees are willing to offer him (and who they sign in front of him will likely determine that) and whether or not the lure of Bloomington will be enough to leave the offer on the table. Again, it is in no way rare for a prospect to not sign for a team after being drafted, and he won't generally be shunned in the future.
Tyler Tufts: Tufts is an interesting case. His numbers don't fly off the page, and watching him, he's not the type of overpowering pitcher who screams pro with every strike. But he has decent command, and he can throw several pitches effectively within a prescribed game plan.
Tufts is the kind of player could fizzle out in a minor league system. But he's also the kind of player who might find the right pitching coach, put a thing or two together, and turn up on a AAA or major league roster in a few years.
As far as staying or going, it's entirely up to Tufts. The weekend conference series will be shrinking next year from four games to just three. If Monar makes it to campus, there is a chance - though completely unclear at this point obviously - that Tufts could lose out to Arnett for the third spot in the weekend rotation and get moved to midweek starter as a senior.
It would make more than a little sense for Tufts to take what he can get right now, when he's likely to command a lot more money than a graduated senior ever would. And one could hardly blame him for leaving if his spot in the rotation really might evaporate.
But at the same time, I think it fairly obvious that Tracy Smith and Co. would drool over the kind of rotation that would have Monar and Matt Bashore holding down a weekend series and either Arnett or Tufts pitching game three with the other featuring at the midweek.
Smith has said all along that he knows his teams turn a corner when they start winning on the weekend and at the midweek. Having one of the last two pitchers mentioned starting on Tuesdays/Wednesday and getting backup from Kyle Leiendecker and incoming freshman Drew Leininger would make the Hoosier pitching staff far more formidable than it's been at any other time in the recent past.
The Hoosiers surely would love to have Tufts and Monar together next year, but I'm not sure it happens. I think Tufts would be right to wait for Monar's decision, as well as to see what the Rangers will pay him. He probably won't get a whole lot of money, but who knows what the Rangers will give him. This might be the most interesting storyline to follow as it unfolds.
Alex Dickerson: I have honestly no clue what Dickerson will do. Taken this late in the draft, it seems highly unlikely that he will sign, and with Means gone, there will be a hole in the outfield that Dickerson could fill quite nicely.
I will say, however, that working as closely as I have with the Nationals organization over the tail end of the months-long preparation leading to the draft, they do their homework. And one of their biggest pieces is signability.
Now, most players taken this late do not sign, and there's a better than average chance that Dickerson was taken simply to fill a hole on the draft board. I think this mostly depends on which future Dickerson wants to pursue immediately, collegiate or professional.
So there it is. My "expert" analysis of the Hoosiers involved in this year's draft. Expert needs to be in quotes, please don't consider me an industry insider or anything.
If I were forced to make predictions, I would say that I think the Hoosiers only lose Means, simply because I can't see the Yankees letting pitchers go unsigned that they covet more than Monar simply to have the fallback plan of paying Monar the same money.
Likewise, I don't think the Rangers will willingly pony up enough cash to make it worth Tufts' while to leave college, but the junior right-hander may have other personal motivations and goals that he'd like to see realized at the professional level, regardless of the cost.
Dickerson? Well, I just can't imagine a 48th-round pick turning down college for what little money he'd get, especially consider the guy he will be vying to replace didn't even go to college to play baseball.
We'll try to get in touch with as many of these guys as we can over the next few days, and we'll definitely keep you apprised of their individual situations as they develop.
Until then, sound off with your comments, they are always welcome. Give us your opinions on IU's faring on draft day. Who should go pro? Who should stay? Where does this team land in each scenario? Let's get this party started.
