POSTGAME: Despite a late second-half surge from IU - a push that brought IU back from a 12 point deficit - the Hoosiers lose in Sacramento tonight, 54-49.
IU fought back late and tied the game at 49 with under a minute remaining. Lance Stemler and Rod Wilmont each a three in an 8-1 IU run, but the Hoosiers threw away - literally - their late miracle opportunity on turnovers by Stemler and Earl Calloway.
IU improved their paltry 13 point first half scoring output considerably in the second half, nearly tripling that number with 36 second half points. IU also shot 50 percent from the field in the second half, compared to 17.9 percent in the first half. Still, the Hoosiers couldn't overcome their late turnovers, and IU coach Kelvin Sampson's first season as as the Hoosiers' skipper ended in the round of 32 here tonight.
Post-game press conferences (which I'm sure, for IU's players, will have the same tenor as a funeral procession) are just about to begin, so I'll be back soon thereafter to discuss the game, the season, and all things IU basketball. See you then.
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HALFTIME: Wow. I mean, wow.
Before the game, I wrote (and everyone I've talked to here has said basically the same thing):
When they're hot from the outside, like they were the other night against Gonzaga, the Hoosiers win games. That simple.
That has not happened. Boy, has that not happened.
Instead, the Hoosiers are shooting as badly as they could have. Check this out: IU shot 5-of-28 in the first half, including 0-of-8 from the three point line. Of their seven free throw attempts, the Hoosiers made three.
Luckily for IU, UCLA shot almost as poorly. The Bruins were 7-of-26 from the field, and 1-of-5 from the three point line. Both teams committed more fouls (six for IU, eight for UCLA) than they did field goals.
Some credit for all of this ugliness should go to both defenses, which are preventing easy looks or penetration. IU guard Earl Calloway has been the only player able to get into the UCLA shell, and D.J. White has eight rebounds and three emphatic blocks already, but other than that, not much is positive for either team so far.
13 points. Like I said: wow.
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We're here at ARCO Arena for what could be IU's last game in the 2006-2007 season, a match up with uber-talented No. 2 seed UCLA.
Yesterday, IU coach Kelvin Sampson said he didn't know what would happen today, and I'm total agreement. I can imagine a bevy of scenarios: IU shocks and wins solidly, IU wins on a miracle last-second shot, UCLA blows the Hoosiers out of the water, UCLA wins a tight game ... the options seem endless.
The eventual outcome will likely rely heavily on how well IU shoots from the perimeter. The Hoosiers are 12-1 when they make more than nine 3-pointers, the lone loss coming at Ohio State on Jan. 2. When they're hot from the outside, like they were the other night against Gonzaga, the Hoosiers win games. That simple.
What isn't so simple is how IU will stop the UCLA juggernaut. As Sampson said yesterday, the Bruins are tactically easy to understand on both ends of the floor: on defense, they play a strict man-to-man, and their offense is low on trickery and caveats. Understanding UCLA isn't the problem. Stopping them is. That means stopping NBA prospects Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, and Aaron Afflalo, who is averaging 16.9 points per game. IU's defense is good (though it's not as good as everybody thinks), but it might not be enough to contain all three of those guys and hold Lorenzo Mata and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute off the boards.
So, like I said, a variety of outcomes are possible here. I've gotten a couple of predictions from some of the writers here, and the general consensus is a close loss for IU. As much as I want to go to San Jose for the week, I have to agree.
Eamonn's prediction: UCLA 64, IU 58. Matt's prediction: UCLA 70, IU 65 Ryan's prediction: UCLA 73, IU 67
A pretty uniform batch of picks there. I couldn't bring myself to pick IU, but I'm reserving this shade of gray: I think the Hoosiers have like, oh, a 37 percent chance of winning. It's not out of the realm of possibility. Still, though, probably not going to happen.
What do you think? Think the Hoosiers can shock the Bruins? Let us know in the comments.
