MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — The announcer jinx is well established. If you turn on a television broadcast of a football game and the play-by-play commentator is praising the efficiency of a kicker moments before a crucial late-game field goal attempt, said kicker will undoubtedly miss. It’s a curse that’s been proven accurate one too many times.
So, I understand why an Indiana football fan would cringe when I say that the Hoosiers will win the national championship well before the game is even played. But I say don’t fret; there’s no such thing as a writer’s jinx.
And let’s be honest, my words won’t determine the final outcome of Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship — the play on the field will do that. That’s the very reason I’m so confident with my prediction. I believe Indiana will beat the University of Miami. Here are four reasons why:
Winning the “wrestling match”
It’s cliche but incredibly accurate nonetheless — football is won in the trenches. If you want an example, look no further than Miami. The Hurricanes’ loaded defensive line is often praised —and rightfully so — the unit leads the country with 47 sacks this season. But it's their offensive front that Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has his eyes on.
“They have a system that allows you to kind of turn it into a little bit more of a wrestling match than some other offenses,” Haines said during Saturday’s media day. “It's their physicality that makes them unique. That's why they're here.”
He has a point. Miami has rushed for over 150 yards in each of its previous three CFP matchups. While the Hurricanes’ offensive attack hasn’t always been pretty, consistent gains on the ground have allowed them to extend drives and open up the field for playmakers on the perimeter.
So far this postseason, Miami’s offensive line overpowered every opposing front it’s faced. But if there’s one unit who can break that trend, it's the Hoosiers' defense.
“It's my job and it's our job, as a staff, to find some of those ways to fracture what they're doing and just make them playoff schedule and with their left hand,” Haines said.
Indiana has kept opponents under 100 yards on the ground in all but two games this season. A big part of that is the Hoosiers’ FBS-best 128 tackles for loss, an indication of their disruptive potential. If you want a team to play off schedule, meeting opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage is a good place to start.
I think Haines’ defense can make that happen. If so, it will force Miami’s redshirt sixth-year senior quarterback Carson Beck to beat a blanketing Indiana pass defense on obvious passing downs — a task virtually no quarterback has accomplished this season.
Batman and Batman
Last season, Indiana’s redshirt senior running back Kaelon Black nicknamed his position group the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. That running back room averaged 165.1 rushing yards per game. This season, the Hoosiers are averaging 218.3 yards on the ground.
While Black claimed the original nickname still applies for him and redshirt senior Roman Hemby, I would argue for a different fictional comparison — Batman and Robin. The only problem? There is no sidekick.
Both backs average over five yards per carry, over 60 yards per game and are part of a criminally overlooked Indiana rushing attack. The Hoosiers’ pass game is brilliant, fair enough, but their run game is a big reason why. Hemby and Black run hard every play, are patient waiting for gaps to open up and seem to fall forward on every carry.
I’ve already sprinkled in the cliche that games are won in the trenches, and Indiana’s offensive line is just another testament to its truth.
“Just being a good running back isn't good enough all the time,” Hemby said. “I take my success with a grain of salt because I know I wouldn't be there without the guys that are around me.”
Establishing the run will be paramount against the elite pass rush Miami possesses. The best way to prevent a pass rush is to not pass. If the Hurricanes’ defense commits to stopping the run, so too will its pass rushers, which will free the field for redshirt junior quarterback Fernando Mendoza and his cast of talented receivers.
“You gotta run the football,” Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan said. “You gotta be able to wear them down in that area of the game.”
That’s exactly what happened in Indiana’s 38-3 win over the University of Alabama in the Rose Bowl and its 56-22 victory over Oregon in the Peach Bowl. The Hoosiers combined for 400 rushing yards in those two matchups and wore their opponents down. It starts with the offensive line, but Hemby and Black seal the deal.
It would be hard to stop Batman and Robin in the backfield, but Batman and Batman? Good luck Miami.
Utilizing leverage points
I’ve already gone over why I believe Indiana can stop the run; that’s phase one. Phase two shifts the focus from the defensive line to the Hoosiers’ linebackers and defensive backs. For Indiana to stop the Hurricanes’ playmakers, like freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney, tackling in space is paramount.
Fortunately for the Hoosiers, they’re equipped to do so.
Indiana has a trio of sure tacklers at linebacker in senior Aiden Fisher, sophomore Rolijah Hardy and redshirt junior Isaiah Jones. All three of them have shown an ability to wrap up shifty offensive threats on the perimeter, a luxury the Hoosiers’ coaching staff is thankful to have.
“I think that's probably one of the better qualities of our football team, is that we tackle effectively,” Haines said.
Equally important are the Hoosiers’ defensive backs. Junior cornerback D’Angelo Ponds “takes away half the field” according to Haines. But Indiana’s safeties, junior Amare Ferrell and redshirt sixth-year senior Louis Moore, are invaluable chess pieces for its defensive scheme.
“I'm a big teacher in leverage points, meaning that there's usually two guys in a zone that should be able to corral or vice a ball carrier,” Haines said. “Using your help, using your leverage point usually can help you against elite athletes like what Miami has.”
While stopping Toney entirely may be impossible, the Hoosiers are certainly capable of slowing him down. The Hurricanes’ pass offense relies heavily on screens and short completions aimed at getting players in space.
Should Indiana’s defense slow down the run like I predicted it will, Haines’ unit is too well coached to let those quick hit playcalls beat them. It could be a long day for Beck and company if that happens on Monday.
Fourth quarter Fernando
While I’ve been abundantly clear on my stance that the Hoosiers will win, I don’t want to suggest it will be another blowout. Miami’s defense is better than those of Alabama and Oregon; that’s not a particularly controversial take. After all, it was a 10-3 defensive duel against Texas A&M University that started the Hurricanes’ CFP journey.
I think the national championship will remain close — and that’s just one more reason to pick Indiana.
The Hoosiers have played in close games. They trailed with less than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter against both Iowa and Penn State, and won both. Mendoza hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s certainly been clutch. The Heisman Trophy winner lives up to the award by playing his best football when it matters most.
Mendoza led crucial second-half touchdown drives against Iowa, Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State. If one is by chance, two is a coincidence and three is a pattern, then four is the undisputed truth.
“It’s kind of crazy how many clutch plays he’s had,” sophomore receiver Charlie Becker said.
On the flip side, Miami’s only two losses this season were in one-score games and a result of self-imposed mistakes. Beck threw interceptions in the closing minutes of the Hurricanes’ 24-21 loss to the University of Louisville on Oct. 17 and in overtime in their 26-20 loss to Southern Methodist University on Nov. 1.
It’s not to say Beck plays poorly in high-leverage situations. He’s led his team to the national championship after all, but those are data points — important ones at that. Miami has lost close games and Indiana hasn’t. That matters.
“We're expecting a four-quarter, 15-round fight against a great Miami defense, and I know our guys will be prepared and go in with that mindset,” Shanahan said.
If that expectation pans out, it would be hard to bet against Mendoza. I know I wouldn’t. So, Hoosier faithful, I can cross my fingers if it makes you feel any better, but I won’t hold back my words — Indiana football will win the national championship.
Follow reporters Dalton James (@DaltonMJames and jamesdm@iu.edu) and Conor Banks (@Conorbanks06 and conbanks@iu.edu) and columnist Quinn Richards (@Quinn_richa and qmrichar@iu.edu) for updates throughout the Indiana football season.
