With Election Day looming, voter turnout has surged to unprecedented levels.
“More people have voted this year so far than the 2012 election,” said Carolyn VandeWiele, Monroe County Election Board Democratic member.
Tree Martin, Monroe County chief deputy clerk, said early voting totals have reached more than 23,700 people as of Nov. 3. According to the 2012 general election cumulative statistics for early voting in Monroe County, slightly more than 17,700 voters walked in to cast their ballots before Election Day. This year has seen roughly a third more early ballots with the last day of early voting still to come.
However, with so much focus dedicated to the presidency, it’s hard to tell what determines the outcome of less covered races. Party and election officials weigh in on how this race will affect state and local offices.
People tend to be less cognizant of their state officials. Fewer than 20 percent of voters are able to name their represented state legislator, according to a 2013 study in the Annals of the American Academy of Political Science and Social Science.
With the fixation on the presidency and other nationally covered races, some voters are indifferent to down-ballot offices.
“We have people that come in say ‘I don’t care about the school board, I don’t care about locally, I just care about the top,’” Martin said.
VandeWiele said while people are enthusiastic for the national races, those offices will be less influential on citizens in the daily grind of governance.
“Local and state representatives probably have more affect on their lives than the president,” she said.
When it comes to less recognizable offices, patterns show voters tend to stick to their party, according to Ballotpedia.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 10 U.S. states offer straight-ticket voting, where voters can select one party to fill in for all local, state and federal offices during general elections. Martin said roughly 30 percent of Monroe County that went to the polls voted straight ticket during the 2012 race, regardless of who’s running.
This coattail effect, or a popular top-ballot candidate influencing races across the ballot, is why victors of state and local races often correlate with the winner of the presidency, according to Ballotpedia.
“For most of our state candidates, they’re polling at the same levels as Trump,” Election Board Republican Chair William Ellis said.
Despite strong evidence for a down-ballot pattern, Martin said this election and its turnout are too unusual to determine a cause for state and local outcomes. Officials at Election Central have seen an influx of elderly voters, disabled citizens, mothers carrying armfuls of kids and first-time voters in their 60s show up for this election, she said.
Additionally, it’s hard to compare this race to the race in 2012, when there was a Democratic incumbent in the Oval Office, she said.
Nevertheless, both parties agree this election has seen an unexpected peak in voter turnout.
“There is more energy than I’ve ever anticipated,” Ellis said.
VandeWiele said she agrees that more voters are voicing their opinion in this race.
“I think there’s something about this election that people are galvanized for,” she said.
Today is the last day to vote early. Registered voters can place their ballots early from 8 a.m. to noon at Election Central at 401 W. Seventh St. or at the Showers' satellite location at 501 N. Morton St.
