Ukraine is no Cold War redux

When news broke that Russia had invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, part of Ukraine’s territory, alarm bells went ringing across the world. The European Union and the United States, among other world powers, immediately began paying attention.

Among the typical rhetoric thrown around whenever international conflicts arise, many pundits have been claiming that we are witnessing the rise of a second
Cold War.

The Editorial Board sees this narrative as an incorrect portrayal of an international conflict involving a nation with which we’ve had a strained relationship in the past.
When the Cold War was beginning, there was a definitive clash of ideologies between the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union. The Soviet Union saw capitalism as a flawed, destructive system, while the U.S. viewed communism as a cancer of the world and an existential threat to our democracy.

Today, Russia is attempting to liberalize its economy, pushing for more free market opportunities. Instead of being a worldwide conflict between the East and West of ideology, it’s one of jostling for regional influence. Russia is not acting out of power. It’s acting out of weakness.

Modern-day Russia pales in comparison to the Cold War-era Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, at the time of the Cold War, had a population of about 400 million people. Today, that number has

plummeted to 143 million. The U.S. has almost 320 million people.
The Russian economy is also unimpressive, standing at $2.1 trillion compared to the U.S. economy, which is at $16.7 trillion.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, is orchestrating a power play to try and appeal to Russians domestically. Meanwhile, he’s further isolating himself from the world.

Russia needs the support of other nations in order to maintain its economy. Currently, trade accounts for roughly 40 percent of Russia’s economy, making it dependent on its relationship with other nations.

Additionally, when Putin grabbed Crimea, he supported a vote that Crimea held, under Russian occupation, to join Russia and separate from Ukraine. Putin argues that, since Crimea is mainly Russian-speaking or ethnic Russian, they deserve to be able to choose whether or not to be part of the “motherland.”

Putin has witnessed and experienced instances of territories within Russia attempting to separate as well, the most memorable being Chechyna. The heavily Islamic territory of Chechnya attempted to secede from Russia, during which the Russians led a war against the state.

During the First Chechen War, Russia was unable to defeat the small state, despite having tremendous military, economic and technological advantages.
It stands to reason that Putin will have to answer to states in his country, such as Chechnya, as to why he supports Crimea separating from Ukraine due to ethnic differences, but won’t allow other states of ethnic variance to do the same in relation to Russia.

What Putin has succeeded in doing, in our view, is grabbing a relatively small territory that is useful in trade and oil transport. He has, however, potentially risked internal upheaval, further international isolation, disdain from the U.N. and an overall expectation of power that he simply does not control.

The Editorial Board does not believe that a second Cold War is imminent. And we pray that we’re right.

opinion@idsnews.com
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