This is a must-win

The phrase “must-win” is overused in sports.

But when IU (14-9, 4-6) welcomes Penn State (12-12, 3-8) into Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers must win to keep their already slim hopes of being an NCAA tournament team alive.

To go dancing in March, they will have to be pretty close to perfect the rest of the season.

But they still have a chance. If they go 6-2 in the remaining eight games, it would be hard for the committee to keep IU out of the tournament.

But that means going at least 2-2 against Iowa (home), Wisconsin (away), Ohio State (home) and Michigan (away).

That also means the Hoosiers' games against Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern and Nebraska all have to be wins.

The two road games in that cluster are Purdue and Northwestern. And knocking off the Wildcats will be no sure thing, as IU couldn’t beat Northwestern in Assembly Hall.

That makes this matchup tonight against the Nittany Lions that much more vital for IU’s NCAA Tournament aspirations.

So yes, this is a must-win game.

And luckily for IU fans, this should be a relatively easy victory for the Hoosiers. The Nittany Lions are just 3-8 in the conference, tied with Illinois for the cellar in the Big Ten.

IU already beat Penn State this year at University Park by three. It was the team’s first and only road win. Expect the Assembly Hall bump to give IU the extra oomph necessary to beat Penn State for a second time.

The Hoosiers are a different and better team than they were 32 days ago when they beat Penn State for the first time.

Freshman guard Stanford Robinson hadn’t emerged yet, and sophomore guard Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell wasn’t on his current hot streak.

Penn State’s D.J. Newbill went off for 24 points while Tim Frazier was held to 10 points on 2-of-7 shooting. Expect to see defensive stoppers Robinson and Ferrell to defend these guards very well.

The Nittany Lions don’t have anyone who can keep up with Noah Vonleh. But to be fair, not a lot of teams have anyone who can corral Vonleh.

The freshman phenom only played 27 minutes in the last game. Lately, Vonleh has been playing a few more minutes per game. So expect to see a heavy, heavy dose of Vonleh.

But on the other hand, nothing about this IU team surprises me anymore.

This is the same team that beat then-No.3 Wisconsin and four days later lost to a sub-.500 Northwestern team. Both games were in Assembly Hall, as is this one today.

So if the Hoosiers come out and lay a brick against Nittany Lions, it will be the first brick of building for the 2014-15 season — this current season will be done.

But I don’t see that happening.

IU is too good for Penn State. They have much more talent. And as long as they maintain the focus they need to have over the next eight games, they should take care of the Nittany Lions.

The Hoosiers will win the must-win.

Prediction- IU 68, Penn State 55

Evan Hoopfer is 9-5 in predictions this year.

Follow columnist Evan Hoopferon Twitter @EvanHoopfer.