Column: Rest of season predictions

IU is 20 games into the season standing at 13-7 (3-4 in the Big Ten).

I think the Hoosiers have been slightly disappointing this year, because of unfairly high fan expectations coming into the season.

IU has been wildly inconsistent this year, which has had good and bad results. The team knocked off previously unbeaten and then-No. 3 Wisconsin and lost to sub-.500 Northwestern just four days later.

Predicting this Hoosier team has been a struggle for me. So far this season I’m 7-4 on predictions since taking over the basketball column.

Twenty games into the season, this is a good point to reassess — a good point to look ahead in the schedule — and try and predict the unpredictable Big Ten.

There are 11 games remaining, not counting the Big Ten tournament or potential postseason play.

I could see this team reaching its potential and going 9-2. I could see this team not maturing and going 2-9.

So with that, let’s try and predict.

At Nebraska, Thursday Jan. 30 – LOSS
I will cover this more extensively in Thursday’s preview column, but Nebraska has been a world beater at home.

They are a different team in Lincoln for some reason. This year they are 9-1 at Pinnacle Bank Arena.

That one loss? To Michigan (7-0 in the Big Ten) by one point.

IU is a very young team, and young teams historically struggle on the road.

Given that Nebraska has already knocked off Ohio State and Minnesota at home, I don’t see the Hoosiers doing any better than those teams.

Vs Michigan, Sunday Feb. 2 – LOSS
Ok, so Michigan is really good again this year.

They don’t have the star power like last year’s team did with Trey Burke, but they are still getting it done. Nik Stauskas has been out of his mind as an offensive player. Ever since Michigan lost to No. 1 Arizona back in Dec. 14, the Wolverines haven’t lost again. That’s nine straight wins, and Stauskas has been one of the major reasons.

Lately, he’s gotten even hotter. He’s averaged more than 22 points per game the last four contests. But what is even crazier is Michigan’s balance.

Nobody has a possession usage rate over 23.4 percent, which is pretty low. Nobody dominates the ball like last year, when Burke had a 29 percent usage rate.

They share the ball up in Ann Arbor, Mich. This might be the best team IU will face all
year. If the Hoosiers pull off the win, it will be even more surprising than the Wisconsin game.

But I don’t see that happening.

At Minnesota, Saturday Feb. 8 – LOSS
This will be the Hoosiers’ third straight loss, per my humble opinion.

Similar to the reasons I don’t think IU will beat Nebraska, I don’t see the Hoosiers winning in the Barn. The Golden Gophers have had a pretty tough conference schedule thus far and have stayed afloat at 4-4.

They’ve beaten both Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. Minnesota has one of the best offenses in the nation, ranking 14th in offensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com. Despite being prolific on offense, they like to slow it down. They are the 227th-slowest team in America.

That is not the Hoosiers’ strong point. If Minnesota makes this a half-court slugfest, I don’t think IU has the horses to match up.

I could see IU pulling off one major upset sometime during the rest of the season, but I don’t think this is the one.

I simply don’t like this matchup for IU.

See the rest of columnist Evan Hoopfer's predictions in tomorrow's IDS and on IDSnews.com.

­— ehoopfer@indiana.edu