Should IU go for it more on fourth down?

On third down, the IU offense has failed to convert 82 times.

IU Coach Kevin Wilson then has a choice. Go for it on fourth down, or punt?

He’s elected to punt 59.8 percent of the time, and his offensive staff knows as soon as it’s first down if the team is in four-down territory or not.

Wilson relays the following message to his staff.

“I said it the whole game,” Wilson said. “When it’s first-and-10, you’re in four-down territory.”

Wilson remembers the days when he was a play-caller, when it was third-and-eight, and he thought the team would punt the ball if they did not convert.

The head coach would say only then, after the failed third down conversion, that it’s four-down territory.

“And I thought, golly, I might have thrown a slant pass or screen or run,” Wilson said. “Because you’ve got fourth down in your back pocket.”

For the season, IU is seven for 16 on fourth down, a 43.8 percent conversion rate. This figure is 10th in the Big Ten, and the 16 attempts are the fourth highest.

“That 40-something percent ought to be higher,” Wilson said. “Our offense is better than that.”

With IU ranking 122nd out of 123 Football Bowl subdivision teams in total defense, the Hoosiers might want to go for it more on fourth down.

This season, IU’s defense has allowed 48 touchdowns and eight field goals. They’ve forced 37 punts, 16 turnovers on down and 14 turnovers.

IU opponents are scoring touchdowns on 39 percent of their possessions and scoring any points at a 46-percent rate.

IU is last in the conference for total defense, rushing defense and passing
defense.

Also, IU’s defense is on the field longer than any other Big Ten team’s.

Because of the offense’s high tempo, the Hoosiers have an average time of possession of 24 minutes and seven seconds, the lowest in the Big Ten by almost 3 1/2 minutes.

The sticking point of a high tempo offense is it’s not the amount of time you’re on the field, it’s the number of plays you get.

But IU’s last in that, too.

The defense has been on the field for 819 plays this season. No other Big Ten team has been on the field for more than 800 plays.

Therefore, IU’s defense is not only worst in the conference, they are on the field more than any other Big Ten team.

Trying to make up for the defense’s shortcomings, should the offense try to give them a break by going for it more on fourth down?

IU’s offense has been prolific. Except for a three-point aberration in Wisconsin this past weekend, they have scored 28 points or more in every one of their games.

They are averaging 6.7 yards per play, which is only topped by Ohio State and Wisconsin.

Looking at their third-down data, it is easy to see they are converting at a high rate.

Looking at third downs is useful because IU is basically converting the same
percentage of third downs (43.4 percent) as fourth downs (43.8 percent).

Therefore, if the fourth-down conversion rate were extrapolated, and IU went for it on fourth down as much as it did on third down, the numbers would be roughly the same.

On third-and-short, (one to three yards) the Hoosiers convert 65 percent of the time. On third-and-medium, (four to seven yards) they are 40 percent. And on third-and-long, (eight or more yards) they are 29 percent.

IU holds its opponents scoreless on just 54 percent of the opposition’s drives. Under projections, the Hoosiers would convert around 52 percent of fourth-and-one to fourth-and-eight situations.

Should they go for it?

“So, sometimes we’re being aggressive, but you’re picking your spots,” Wilson said. “Where our team is, we have to be aggressive, but if we hang our defense out to dry, that can hurt us really bad when we’re picking our spots.”

Follow football reporter Evan Hoopfer on Twitter @EvanHoopfer.