The state of the GOP’s 2012 contenders

If you’ve turned on the news lately, you know the season is already in full swing for those seeking the Republican nomination for president in 2012. If you have managed to see one of the GOP presidential debates, it may have given you a good feeling for the candidates and their platforms.

If you have not, the goal here is to provide you with a brief overview of the current candidate field. I will report their current standings among likely Republican voters, as reported by an average calculated by Real Clear Politics of different polls across the country. I will also present what I perceive as two strengths and a weakness for each of them.

Dr. Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at West Virginia University, has labeled the GOP candidates who really have no chance at the nomination as “Pretenders” and those that could take the nomination as “Contenders.” This is used in the descriptions below to help explain the viability of their candidacy.

Businessman and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is considered among many in the Republican establishment as the leading candidate for next year. Sabato said he is a serious “Contender” for the nomination. Strengths: Romney has a good record in the private sector and name recognition among the general electorate.
Weakness: His passage of “Romneycare” in Massachusetts  is not popular among Republican primary voters.

Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain came roaring out of nowhere and is now considered a serious “Contender.” Cain’s current popularity has him in a dead heat with Gov. Romney for first place. Strengths: He is an African American conservative and has a strong business record. Weakness: He will appear too conservative to moderates and independents in a general election.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry was a late entrant to the GOP race, having entered in early August. Sabato said Perry is the third and final “Contender” for the nomination. Strengths: He has the ability to raise a lot of money and a strong record of job creation in Texas. Weakness: His stance about immigration will affect his position among GOP primary voters.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich has been in the race from the start and is currently polling fourth. Sabato said Gingrich is considered a leading “Pretender.” Strengths: He has a conservative record as speaker of the House and is very intelligent as a policy maker. Weakness: His personal life might polarize some GOP primary voters.

Congressman and libertarian favorite Ron Paul currently polls at fifth place and is considered a “Pretender.” Strengths: He is a strong, limited conservative and is popular among young people. Weakness: His positions about foreign policy will irritate many Republican primary voters.

Congresswoman and Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann currently sits at sixth place and is a “Pretender.” Strengths: She has strong support from the Tea Party and appeals to the conservative base of the GOP. Weakness: She is somewhat controversial among the general electorate.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman currently sits at seventh place and is definitely a “Pretender.” Strengths: He has executive experience as both a governor and business leader, and he also has foreign policy experience as ambassador to China.
Weakness: His moderate social positions will affect his chances among GOP primary voters.

Last but not least, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum sits in last place and is considered a “Pretender.” Strengths: He appeals to social conservatives and is relatively popular in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. Weakness: His zealous social conservatism will turn off moderates and independent voters in a general election.

In conclusion, I leave you with my own analysis of the traits essential for a Republican candidate to beat President Obama in 2012: Whoever wins the nomination, GOP voters must pick a candidate with executive experience who will be a good contrast to Obama in the general election.

It will be important for the candidate to clearly articulate his or her record and vision for the United States. This will play a large role in the general election when the candidate is up against a sitting president who has a strong ability to communicate.

Lastly, it will be essential for the nominee to focus on the economy and have the strong business acumen to communicate his or her plan to get America back to work.

­— cjcaudil@indiana.edu