Evangelicals can’t win the presidency

Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain said he will compete with Texas Gov. Rick Perry for the Evangelical Christian vote, since he’s a conservative Christian, too.

The Evangelicals make up a decent-sized chunk of the Republican base — a vocal chunk, at that. Several of the Republican frontrunners, including Michele Bachmann, are vying for those votes based on their personal beliefs.

But while putting the Evangelicals behind a candidate could win them the Republican nomination, it won’t win the White House. During the last few years, increasing polarization between the right and the left has made it harder for moderates to come to the forefront and compromise on issues.

Staunch candidates of either side appeal to their own bases, but not to the other party.
With about an equal number of Republicans and Democrats in the country, the Republican candidate is going to have to sway moderates and people who are fed up with President Barack Obama.

A hard-line Democrat won’t jump ship to the other side, but someone who sides with the moderate will. But it takes a certain kind of candidate to pull people away from a sitting president.

Many Democrats are concerned about social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage, and they won’t vote for a candidate who’s vowing to reinstate the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy. They might, however, be willing to abandon the disappointing Obama for a fiscal conservative who is still liberal about social issues.

There aren’t any serious Republican candidates who fit that bill. Bachmann, Perry and their fellow competitors can vie for support among the socially conservative base all they want, but once it comes time for the general election, the winner won’t sway the necessary moderates to his or her side.

Many of Obama’s former supporters are dissatisfied with the president’s time in office, but they’ll vote for him again to ensure the next four years aren’t dominated by someone who’s going to take away what they see as rights.

It’ll be a vote against the Republican, not a vote for Obama, but it will accomplish the same thing: another four years of a Democrat in the White House.

What would the super-conservatives do if the Republican nominee were a moderate?

Trying to run a third candidate would be political suicide, because it would split the
Republican votes and hand the election to the Democrats. They would have no choice but to back the moderate candidate. A moderate Republican wouldn’t hurt for Republican votes.

The Republican National Committee needs to wake up and understand that most of America won’t put a crazy into the White House. It’s probably too late for the RNC to find a serious Republican candidate who’s fiscally conservative and socially liberal, which is going to be its downfall.

Maybe in 2016, the Republican party leaders will realize that pandering to the extreme conservative doesn’t win a national election.

­— hanns@indiana.edu