Ind. Congress races could play major role in D.C.

There’s no question the Republican party is working to regain the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Democrats are working to maintain it this November.

In the midst of frantic campaigning, Indiana is emerging as one of the most important states for the congressional races.

The most recent Gallup Poll showed an equal number of voters planning to vote either Republican or Democrat.

Republicans need 39 seats to gain control of the House, and Indiana might help them get there.

This has put Democratic candidates for re-election on the defensive, and President Barack Obama warned Oct. 11 that a Republican majority could disrupt the party’s agenda.

“We need you to fight their millions of dollars with our millions of voices,” Obama said in a midterm elections rally in Philadelphia. He was referring to the money spent on ads criticizing Democratic candidates.

Three Indiana congressional seats that are currently held by Democratic U.S. representatives are up for grabs this November. The 9th District congressional seat is one of them.

Rep. Baron Hill is the incumbent Democrat for the 9th District and was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1998. He is currently serving his fifth term and is running for re-election this year.

Republican Todd Young is running against Hill for the first time. Young is a Marine veteran who earned his J.D. from the IU School of Law. He currently serves as deputy prosecutor for Orange County, Ind. and previously worked as a delegate to the Indiana Republican State Convention and as a vice precinct committeeman.

On Monday, while he addressed volunteers at the Monroe County Democratic Party headquarters, Hill said he was currently ahead in the polls.
 
However, some still think the race is a toss-up.

“We believe that it is very close,” said Evelyn Crowe, a volunteer at the MCDP headquarters.

IU Political Science professor Gerald Wright said no one can predict the outcome of the 9th Congressional District race.

“There is a lot of independent expenditure money flooding the districts on behalf of the
Republican candidates,” Wright said. “That may push some of the very close contests over.”

Other Indiana districts have similar stories.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-8th, has vacated his congressional seat to run for U.S. Senate. Now Democratic State Rep. Trent Van Haaften and Republican Larry Bucshon are vying for the position.

CQPolitics.com, a news source privately owned by The Economist Group, showed in its polls that the 8th Congressional District is leaning in favor of the Republican party.
The 2nd Congressional District race, between Democrat U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly and Republican Indiana State Rep. Jackie Walorski, is most likely to retain its Democratic incumbent, according to CQ.

“I am pretty sure Republicans will win one of the seats,” Wright said. “But Donnelly still looks like he may pull it out in the second.”

Overall, the race for the majority in the House seems to be up in the air.

“Given that Democrats won seats in a lot of Republican districts in 2006 and 2008, and this is a very bad economy, which is always bad for the party in power, big Republican gains are what we would expect,” Wright said.

The Pew Research Center/National Journal Poll recently showed 24 percent of Americans approved of their Republican leaders and 30 percent approved of their Democratic leaders.

Wright said although he believes Republicans will win the majority in 2010, this does not necessarily mean the public’s favor is now with Republican policy.

“My guess is that some commentators will interpret a Republican swing as the public endorsing the policies of the Republican congressional leadership or even Tea Party supporters, but that reading is wrong,” Wright said. “It is just a return to partisan balance and typical punishment that comes with a lousy economy.”