Predictions: Television

Trying to determine what will happen in the television industry is hindered by the fact that at least one network does something outrageously stupid every six months. Common sense might say one thing, but try telling that to NBC. Either way, here’s what to expect in 2010.

Conan O’Brien will leave NBC; the man can only be disrespected for so long. With NBC planning to move Jay Leno back to 11:35 p.m. and telling Conan he can either have “The Tonight Show” from midnight to 1 a.m. or leave, the writing seems to be on the wall. He deserves better.

3-D TV will dominate headlines, but it won’t impress. By this summer we’ll be bombarded with stories about 3-D coming to television and how it’s going “change everything.” It won’t, just like 3-D hasn’t revolutionized the movie-going experience. It might be cool, but it’s not innovative.

The “Lost” finale will blow up the Internet. No television event is as anticipated in 2010, and the “Lost” series finale in May and fan reaction will range from “religious experience” to “they were still making it up as they went along.” In fact, expect the final scenes to be even more controversial than the fade to black move from “The Sopranos” a few years back.

“Fringe,” “Community” and “Castle” will be canceled. These three fan favorites are all great series in their own right, but the numbers just don’t add up. “Fringe” and “Community” don’t help themselves by being produced by a studio that’s not related to their specific network and ABC doesn’t seem to care either way about “Castle.”

Hulu and other online viewing portals will change new episode availability.
Discussions surrounding Hulu have been all about a pay model, but that won’t happen just yet.

Instead, look for a tiered availability system where the network gets first rights to stream the episode right after it airs and then it makes its way to Hulu two to three weeks after first airing.

These predictions are great, but surely NBC or FOX will do something so dumb that we can’t even imagine. That’s the beauty of the industry.