Predictions: Politics

When Democrat Jon Corzine was handily ousted from the governorship of New Jersey in November, Republicans rejoiced, calling the election a referendum on the presidency of Barack Obama. Democrats scoffed, citing the unpopularity and possible ineptitude Corzine had demonstrated for months before this nation’s first black president ever set foot in the Oval Office.

When election season rolls around in 2010, it is safe to expect a lot of similar bickering. For every moderate Democrat who is replaced by a moderate Republican, the Fox News demographic will forecast Obama’s inevitable fall in 2012; and for every Democrat who retains his or her seat, Keith Olbermann will offer a smug “I told you so.”

For fear of descending into cliche, I’ll leave it at this: politics should be business as usual in 2010, and no amount of change in the houses of Congress will be a surefire indication of what will happen in the presidential election of 2012. No amount of confidence from either side should convince you otherwise.

Still, 2010 should be an important year for President Obama. Thus far, he has taken steps toward fulfilling many of his campaign promises, yet completed very few. To keep his supporters from jumping ship, he’ll have to do more, especially regarding highly visible issues like reversing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and pulling out of Iraq. It’s especially important that he start fulfilling promises this year since the presumed beginning of his reelection campaign looms in 2011.

Perhaps the most important political event of 2010 – and the one with the most long-term ramifications – is the conducting of the official United States Census. Many Midwestern and northern states stand to lose in the House of Representatives, including nearby Ohio and Michigan, while the South and West should pick up representatives in Texas, Georgia and Arizona, among other states.
   
Gerrymandering will surely become a key point of discussion as the census gets underway. Reapportionment, which is left to state legislatures, can easily be used to disenfranchise certain voting demographics. Democrats might be at an advantage for carrying out this demonized deed, since the effects of creating gerrymandered districts shouldn’t become relevant in this year’s midterm elections. But many Democrats, who are at the mercy of an unforgiving electorate, probably wish that they would.