Four Reasons

Last week during the Television Critics Association press tour, NBC dominated the headlines for its questionable (read: ridiculous) tactics relating to its late night lineup. But lost amid the anti-NBC rhetoric was FOX’s announcement that Simon Cowell will leave “American Idol” after this season and bring his UK competition program “The X Factor” to the network this fall.

Although NBC is getting filleted for its decision-making, here are four reasons why FOX won’t look so smart either come this time next year.

1. Losing Simon is a bigger loss than FOX and “Idol” realize. Yes, the “American Idol” brand is one of the most powerful in entertainment, raking in cash from the nearly milked-to-death series, the tours, the iTunes compilations, etc. But I would wager a hefty sum of money that people still watch for Simon.

Despite the hoopla surrounding his meanness, everyone with a brain knows that Simon is the only judge who provides honest, constructive criticism. Randy Jackson and Kara DioGuardi are time-wasters, and though she’s inherently lovable, Ellen Degeneres isn’t going to give contestants what they need. Without Simon, the panel of judges loses the last shred of credibility it’s clinging to, and even in his bored state from the past few seasons, Simon is still the best. Singing competitions come and go; Simon is one of a kind.

2. Airing both “X-Factor” and “Idol” risks audience burn-out. So far, FOX has been shockingly smart in its ability to avoid airing seasons of “Idol” in both the fall and spring. The two-to-three times a week of “Idol” from January to May is overkill enough, and with the tour following all summer, it’s safe to say fans are happy to have that break in the fall.

By putting “X-Factor” (a program that is similar, only the judges “coach” different contestants) on in the fall, people will be bored with singing competitions by the time “Idol” arrives in January. If you’re FOX, why take the risk of diluting your biggest program, especially when you’ve smartly strayed away from doing so for nearly a decade?  

3. “X-Factor” won’t be as big a hit as “Idol.” “American Idol” is still the biggest program on television, but it was developed and gained its popularity in a different time and has been able to maintain popularity both because of its set-up and its brand name.

These days, it’s much tougher to develop a hit program when there are a number of others that accomplish the same things, and fans are brand-loyal to the “first.” Thus, the financial investment being made in “X-Factor” — which is substantial because Simon wouldn’t walk away from his monster “Idol” payday unless he was getting more here — might not be worth it.

4. Putting Simon in indirect competition with his former program is bad for “Idol.” I’ve already discussed Simon’s importance to the judges, but based on his hard edge, it seems like he’ll do all he can to make his new program better than his previous one.

This is especially true because he’s the creator and executive producer of “X-Factor,” meaning he has even more incentive to make it a billion-dollar brand. What happens when Simon’s winners are better performers than those on “Idol?”

In the UK, once Simon introduced “X-Factor,” they canceled “Idol” to avoid all these issues. Sadly, no one in America is that smart.