Business market index says recession ended in February

The recession is over.

That’s according to the Indiana Leading Economic Index, a monthly measure of the state’s market conditions.

Even though the recession ended in February, yet many people are still feeling the effects of it.

The Indiana Business Research Center, an organization founded by the Kelley School of Business, has made the process of sifting through confusing economic numbers a little easier by creating the index, which predicts the behavior of market conditions within the state of Indiana.

The IBRC uses five different components to measure market conditions, including the Dow Jones Transportation and Housing Market indexes. When three out of the five sectors’ profits go negative, an economic downturn is en route, said Timothy Slaper, IBRC director of economic analysis.

Although a national market index exists, having one that is tailored more to Indiana’s economy helps to avoid trying to read the “tea leaves” of an index that includes information from economies of a much different nature.

Slaper said that because this index is focused more on Indiana, it should be very helpful on the local level. 

But just because the index exists does not mean that consumers will necessarily respond to it effectively. Economics lecturer Paul Graf said it can be difficult to predict future economic behavior exactly, but an index can typically give an indication of what can be expected.

Even though the economy is recovering, unemployment may still remain high for  a while, Slaper said. Employment is a “lagging indicator,” meaning that it is expected to trail even as the economy experiences economic growth. 

This issue worries many people trying to find a job, especially those who are spending tens of thousands of dollars on an education in order to work in a high-end profession. In other words, college students. 

Freshman Samantha Cardwell said that although she plans on going to law school after graduation, her worries are not completely eased. 

She has tried to find a job in Bloomington since starting school, but after unsuccessfully applying to several different places, she gave up looking.

“It didn’t make me feel super confident about finding a job in the future,” Cardwell said. 

Regardless of the speed of the recovery, Graf still agrees that employment will continue to rise for at least the next couple of years. 

Although a vast number of college grads are currently unemployed – more than usual – Graf said that the number of unemployed grads are still one-third less than the overall population.  

“College students are still in pretty good shape,” he said.