Miscalculating the ratings

The major television networks are in trouble.

It’s safe to say we all know that ratings power the TV industry because high ratings equal more ad dollars.

Over the years, the major networks – ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and, to a lesser extent, the CW – have been extremely stringent in their ratings expectations and trigger happy to those who haven’t quite cut it.

High-quality shows (“Arrested Development,” “Firefly,” “Journeyman” and “The Nine,” for example) have been yanked off the air because they weren’t performing well enough in certain demographics, even if they had dedicated, cult-like followings.

Subterranean numbers

But the ratings landscape on network TV is a bit different now. Ratings have dropped heavily for every major network this season except CBS, and many reasons contribute to why it’s difficult to imagine the numbers ever recovering to the levels TV and ad execs expected five or 10 years ago.

When comparing both total viewers and the key 18-49 demographic over the same time period last year, every network has taken a substantial hit.

CBS is down 2.9 percent in overall viewers and 3.5 percent in the 18-49 demographic. ABC has decreased 9.7 and 15.8 percent. NBC has dropped 14.3 and 14.7 percent. FOX is down 17.5 and 15.1 percent, and the CW is down 20.9 and 13.2 percent. 

There are two crucial reasons why the ratings are down this season and why they might never uptick much from where they are: the horrendous scale the industry uses to determine ratings and the 2007-2008 Writer’s Guild of America strike.

Ridiculous rating scale

The networks and media are still relying on the ratings provided by Nielsen to shape the industry. You know, the ones that still collect data from a cross-section of only 25,000 households that are metered. Oh, and the diary entries from about 1.5 million folks during the highly competitive sweeps periods in November and May. That’s it.

How is that a good enough estimate when there are millions of people watching at any given time? Why must we only go off a small sample?

Even worse, the ratings provided by Nielsen fail to accumulate most of the data where most of TV shows are being watched these days: online and on DVR. Most major networks have the episodes uploaded online just a day after they have aired, and more and more it seems like that’s how everyone is watching. And let’s not forget all those people watching programs online illegally.

And if it’s not online, viewers are waiting for episodes to pile up on their DVRs and TiVos before watching. Although Nielsen does sample the DVR numbers (but again, from only a miniscule number of households), they still take three weeks to get back to the press and don’t even factor in those people who are actually using TiVo and not just a cable company-provided DVR.

Continuous strike-outs

Second, that damn WGA strike continues to wreak havoc on Hollywood. It’s obvious that the networks didn’t anticipate people being so disenfranchised with a 100-day labor dispute that they would tune out for good. The “out of sight, out of mind” nature of TV fans make them very fickle. The fast-paced world has provided them with numerous other entertainment outlets, and they didn’t have as much motivation to watch shows returning from the strike. 

Moreover, the strike caused the networks to make some dumb decisions afterward. Most of the shows that debuted in fall 2007 and finished up their pre-strike order before Christmas never came back after the strike. Instead, the networks advised these shows (“Pushing Daisies,” “Life,” “Private Practice,” “Chuck” and “Dirty Sexy Money”) to retool for a major push this fall.

But people forgot about them. And major campaigns pushing them all summer couldn’t stop that.

Each one of those aforementioned programs is struggling mightily in the ratings, and if it weren’t for the universally tepid numbers (especially at NBC), they would probably all be canceled. “Pushing Daisies” and “Chuck” are two critical darlings that everyone can enjoy, yet their season two premieres were down 55 percent and 27 percent respectively from their season-one debuts.

Weak new shows, weak economy

Not only did the strike hurt these returning hour-longs, but it also dampened the pilot season, resulting in the worst batch of new shows in the history of television.

Networks didn’t have time to fully develop anything worthwhile, and that’s why we’ve seen porous efforts like “Do Not Disturb,” “The Ex-List,” “Valentine” and basically anything NBC has put on.

However, not all is lost. The dreadful economy, lack of ad money and sluggish ratings all around have actually made the networks a bit more lenient.

Only four new shows have been cut so far, and shows that would have been nixed in the past like “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” “Knight Rider,” “Kath and Kim” and “Private Practice” have all been given a full-season commitment.  

Where do we go from here?

This restraint from the networks is what we need more of. The networks are going to have to be this patient from here on out. The ratings system will probably never fully catch up to viewer’s habits, unless a chip is installed in both our TVs and computers (but that will probably cause privacy issues), so it’s up to the networks to keep themselves afloat.

No longer can they blame the ratings. There’s lots of good television out there right now that people are watching – they’re just not watching it like they did before high-speed Internet and TiVo. And fans shouldn’t get the shaft because the industry can’t figure out how to properly measure ratings.