Session success or failure hinges on several factors

INDIANAPOLIS – Pressure from the public and special interests. A proposed tax increase. Election-year politics. Demands for complete repeal of property taxes. Several lawmakers not seeking another term.\nThen there is the time crunch – a session that begins Tuesday and is to end by March 14.\nThese are among many factors that could get tangled up and determine whether Gov. Mitch Daniels and a divided General Assembly can achieve the top goal of the 2008 legislative session – significant and lasting reduction in the state’s reliance on property taxes.\nDaniels, a Republican, says he is optimistic that a sweeping reform plan could pass, in part because the Democrat-controlled House and Republican-ruled Senate have held early hearings on his proposal or key parts of it.\nDaniels sent a letter on Friday to every member of the General Assembly welcoming them back and talking about the “obvious need” for property tax relief and reform. Legislative leaders also have pledged to seek bipartisan cooperation after homeowners’ property tax bills rose an average 24 percent statewide in 2007.\nMany believe that some taxes have to be raised to reduce property taxes. Daniels has proposed increasing the sales tax from 6 percent to 7 percent.\nSeveral lawmakers have announced that they will not seek re-election in 2008, and some political observers believe that could make it easier for them to support a tax increase.\nBut there could be several impediments to agreeing on significant reform. For one thing, it is an election year – one in which Daniels is seeking a second term and Democrats control the House by only a 51-49 margin.\n“Election-year sessions are always complicated by the politics of the caucuses, especially in the House, trying to determine how to position themselves for the fall so they can claim credit for something or cite blame for anything that didn’t,” said Bill Blomquist, a political science professor at IU-Purdue University at Indianapolis.\n“Any vote (for complete elimination) would just be a symbolic vote that could pick up steam and draw the votes of legislators who just want an election-year display without it really being a serious vote,” Blomquist said.\nBlomquist said the trick for legislative leaders is getting plans to their full chambers that would reduce property taxes enough to get repeal advocates to support them without an up or down vote on repeal.\nThen there are the special interests. Daniels said in his letter to lawmakers that many will be defending “some piece of the status quo.” He’s right.\n“Please make a New Year’s resolution to put taxpayers, and Indiana’s economic strength, ahead of these narrower agendas,” Daniels wrote.