WEEKEND gears you up for Hollywood's big night with its OSCAR PREDICTIONS

JOHN BARNETT\nBEST PICTURE\nWILL win: "The Departed" / "Babel" (tie)\nI'm copping out for two reasons. The first is that while "The Departed" is the year's best film, "Babel" not only won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture Drama but also features the kind of tour de force, emotionally draining performances that the Academy routinely honors. The second reason is that every time I bank on greatness ("Fargo," "Saving Private Ryan," "The Pianist," "The Aviator" and "Brokeback Mountain") besting mediocrity ("The English Patient," "Shakespeare in Love," "Chicago," "Million Dollar Baby" and "Crash") at the Oscars, I wind up disappointed. Not that "Babel" is in any way mediocre, mind you, but I've just learned not to get my hopes up.\nSHOULD win: "The Departed"\nThe fourth-best film of Martin Scorsese's career (just short of "Goodfellas," "Raging Bull" and "Taxi Driver") is a case of superlative acting, writing, directing, editing, music and cinematography at once in perfect harmony. No single film of 2006, or of the last few years, was better.\nBEST DIRECTOR\nWILL and SHOULD win: Martin Scorsese - "The Departed"\nThe Academy has one clear option, which is to finally give Martin Scorsese his due. He's been nominated five previous times, losing thrice to actor-directors (Robert Redford, Kevin Costner and Clint Eastwood). It may be too little too late, and Scorsese is truly above the Oscars at this point, but it's the very least it can do.\nBEST ACTOR\nWILL win: Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"\nThe surest bet of the night, aside from "Pan's Labyrinth" taking Best Foreign Language Film, is a victory for Whitaker's frightening, film-carrying performance as brutal Ugandan dictator Idi Amin.\nSHOULD win: Leonardo DiCaprio - "Blood Diamond"\nNo, DiCaprio's best acting in 2006 was not seen in "Blood Diamond," but his incendiary leading performance in "The Departed," the year's best, was awkwardly advertised as a supporting role to the Academy in order to avoid the Forest Whitaker juggernaut.\nBEST ACTRESS\nWILL and SHOULD win: Helen Mirren - "The Queen"\nNobody plays British royalty better than Helen Mirren, and no Helen Mirren performance tops her take on the pressurized private life of Queen Elizabeth II in the days immediately following the death of Princess Diana.\nBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR\nWILL win: Alan Arkin - "Little Miss Sunshine"\nDespite Eddie Murphy being the odds-on favorite, Hollywood's general animosity toward Murphy's recent career choices will lean voters in favor of the seasoned Arkin.\nSHOULD win: Mark Wahlberg - "The Departed"\nAn argument has been made that William Monahan's searing screenplay is the reason for Wahlberg's nomination, but I say it's the former rapper/model's first great performance since 1997's "Boogie Nights" that's to thank.\nBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS\nWILL win: Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls"\nRiding the "Dreamgirls" buzz train to victory will be "American Idol" loser Hudson, whose star quality leans more heavily upon vocal talent than acting talent.\nSHOULD win: Rinko Kikuchi "Babel"\nThe Japanese beauty's fearless performance as a promiscuous deaf girl is one of the most impressive director Alejandro González Iñárritu has ever conjured out of an actor.\nMICHAEL MELLINI\nBEST PICTURE\nIn a year where practically all the major categories are predictable, the big prize is the toughest to call. Gone are the days of one huge movie sweeping a majority of the awards. "Babel" leads with seven nominations, but "Little Miss Sunshine" and "Letters From Iwo Jima" both only pulled in four nods. For the second year in a row (but only second time in 30 years) it's very likely that the Best Picture winner will only take home three awards total. I think this race depends on how Best Director goes. The two usually match up, so if Marty wins, it could also go to "The Departed." "Babel" is probably the safest choice, but with no real chance in any other major categories, it might get ignored. However, that didn't stop it at the Golden Globes, where Best Picture was its only win. My fave, "The Queen," will be rewarded for Mirren's performance, not as a complete film. Just being nominated should be "Little Miss Sunshine's" win, but after "Crash's" surprise victory last year, another undeserving indie sleeper could take the prize. If it does, well, I'll hunt down Academy voters and make the last 10 minutes of "The Departed" look like childsplay. \nWILL win: "The Departed" \nSHOULD win: "The Queen"\nBEST DIRECTOR\nAll signs point to Marty (finally), but he could get screwed over yet again. "Letters From Iwo Jima" was even better than the last Clint films the Academy honored him for, so maybe they'll do it again. If "Babel" is the big winner, Innaritu could clean up as well. Not being nominated for Best Picture kills Paul Greengrass' chances for "United 93" and once again voters will use Mirren to honor "The Queen."\nWILL Win: Martin Scorsese - "The Departed"\nSHOULD Win: Martin Scorsese (based on history), Alejandro González Iñárritu (based on the actual film)\nBEST ACTOR\nIt's barely a two-man race between Forest Whitaker and the 0-for-7 Peter O'Toole. After politely declining a 2003 lifetime achievement award, the Academy most likely no longer feels indebted to O'Toole. My best actor race would've looked a lot different. Where's Sacha Baron Cohen? Matt Damon? Aaron Eckhart? So I'd go the no-chance-in-hell route and give it to Gosling.\nWILL win: Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"\nSHOULD win: Ryan Gosling - "Half Nelson"\nBEST ACTRESS\nThe only thing stopping Helen Mirren would be her hype peaking too early. Not likely. Meryl's already got plenty. Kate's just going to have to wait a few more years.\nWILL and SHOULD win:Helen Mirren - "The Queen"\nBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR\nThere's always at least one big upset -- could this be the category? Wahlberg has a Best Picture nomination edge and Jackie Earle Haley or Djimon Hounsou would be a surprise, but Murphy will probably still take it in the end. It may have just been a James Brown impression, but it was a damn good one at that. \nWILL and SHOULD win: Eddie Murphy - "Dreamgirls"\nBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS\nI've praised the talents of Jennifer Hudson enough in WEEKEND so just know that the "Dreamgirls" best picture snub won't hurt her chances (last year Reese Witherspoon won for a great performance from a good musical-ish movie). Votes for "Babel's" Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi will cancel each other out, Blanchett just won two years ago, and it's no longer a huge shock to see children win supporting awards.\nWILL and SHOULD win: Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls"\nOLIVIA MORALES\nBEST PICTURE\nTwo of these films deserved to be nominated for best picture, the actual best picture of the year, "Children of Men," was criminally denied its rightful place. However, "Babel" was a beautiful piece of ensemble and collaborative filmmaking, while "The Departed," well, let's just say I don't really feel like adding to its nonstop publicity.\nWILL win: "The Departed"\nSHOULD win: "Babel"\nBEST DIRECTOR\nOh, happy day. Martin Scorsese will finally win his first little gold statue of a buff naked guy. Everyone who has been a fan of his for years will feel gratified, even though the blood-soaked blockbuster, "The Departed," doesn't even rank in the man's top five best career films. Sigh. \nWILL win: Martin Scorsese\nSHOULD Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu\nBEST ACTOR\nForest Whitaker's performance in "The Last King of Scotland" breathed life into a less-than-perfect film. It is the best of those nominated, and the voters have agreed all awards-season long.\nWILL and SHOULD win: Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"\nBEST ACTRESS\nWith so much profuse talk about the brilliant "twilight years" performances of several veteran actresses, nobody seemed to remember that though Kate Winslet may not have played a head of state this year, her performance in "Little Children" is one of the most sublime and gracefully understated performances in recent movie memory. \nWILL win: Helen Mirren - "The Queen"\nSHOULD win: Kate Winslet - "Little Children"\nBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR\nOh, bleeeeeeeeeeck. What a heinously lackluster nominee pool this year. I can't believe I actually have to call this for showboat Eddie Murphy, but he is the unfortunate shoe-in. The only nomination worth noting here is Jackie Earle Haley's work in "Little Children" as the painfully disturbed social outcast struggling in the suburbs.\nWILL win: Eddie Murphy - "Dreamgirls"\nSHOULD win: Jackie Earle Haley - "Little Children"\nBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS\nA good set of pipes is admirable but should hardly be enough to secure any award with the word "best" stamped on it. Jennifer Hudson will win, will work the word "dream" into her boring speech a few times, people will clap, etc. All the while, Rinko Kikuchi will sit in the audience smiling, knowing that her moving and quite frankly jarring performance in "Babel" was about 800 times better.\nWILL win: Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls"\nSHOULD win: Rinko Kikuchi - "Babel"\nCHRIS WISNER\nBEST PICTURE \nWILL win: "Babel" or "Little Miss Sunshine"\nAfter claiming the Golden Globe last month and not likely to win any other major awards for the evening, "Babel" seems the top candidate to take home big prize at the Oscars. If "Babel" fails to win, then "Little Miss Sunshine," after taking top honors at the PGA and SAG ceremonies, seems to be the next contender. \nSHOULD win: "The Departed"\nWith the Best Director Oscar a lock for Martin Scorsese, the Academy would be hard-pressed to honor America's greatest living director with both of the big awards. "The Departed" is the best film of the year in my book, and if it wins the top prize, I'll be ecstatic, but a statue in Marty's hands is what matters most. \nBEST DIRECTOR\nWILL and SHOULD win: Martin Scorsese - "The Departed"\nNaysayers be damned, this is Marty's year. He has deserved the Oscar every time he has been nominated and thankfully this win won't be out of pity from the Academy. Scorsese proves that even at 64 years of age, he is still directing with the same passion and bravado he possessed when "Mean Streets" put his name on the map. The year 2006 was Martin Scorsese's most successful yet and that Oscar is going to look quite nice on the mantle alongside his Golden Globe and DGA awards. \nBEST ACTOR\nWILL win: Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"\nIt's a bit too obvious at this point that Whitaker has his statue coming to him, but it seems like taking biopic roles has become the new guaranteed way to collect an Oscar after too many actors picked them up by playing the mentally handicapped. Whitaker did a great job with the role, but it is more of a supporting one than the lead when compared to how much screen time James MacAvoy has in the film. And honestly, does anyone want to see Whitaker attempt another embarrassing acceptance speech?\nSHOULD win: Leonardo DiCaprio - "The Departed"\nThat's right, it says for "The Departed." The only reason Leo didn't get a nod for the film is because voters didn't know whether to nominate him for a leading or supporting role, mainly because everyone knows Whitaker is near impossible to beat. DiCaprio deserves the statue 100 percent, but it definitely isn't for "Blood Diamond."\nBEST ACTRESS\nWILL win: Helen Mirren - "The Queen"\nMuch like Whitaker, Mirren is guaranteed her Oscar after almost every major awards show/critic's circle giving her top honors. The performance was incredible and she does deserve it, but I'd love to see an Oscar upset. \nSHOULD Win: Kate Winslet - "Little Children"\nSpeaking of upsets, Winslet has been nominated five times now and has yet to collect a statue. Her turn as a mother trapped in suburbia desperately hoping to escape in "Little Children" is the kind of performance Oscars were meant for. As she quipped in the first episode of "Extras," maybe she'll just have to finally play a "mental" to get her little gold man. \nBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR\nWILL and SHOULD win: Mark Wahlberg -- "The Departed"\nYeah, Eddie Murphy might be cleaning up all the previous awards shows, but it's a well-known fact that a lot of folks in the industry can't stand the man. Murphy on a career-comeback? His donning of yet another fat-suit in "Norbit" shows the only thing he comes back for is paychecks. Wahlberg, with roughly 20 minutes of screen time, gives one tough, fleshed-out role that has impressed the Academy -- impressed them enough to give him an Oscar. \nBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS\nWILL win: Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls"\nYet another likely lock for a statue, "American Idol's" biggest loser certainly will turn up a winner by collecting her Oscar for her debut role -- something that when it does happen usually leaves a sour taste in my mouth because it could just be a fluke. Yeah, Hudson can belt out the tunes, but does she have the acting chops to keep getting roles down the road? Only time will tell.\nSHOULD win: Rinko Kikuchi -- "Babel"\nAt first I wanted to say anyone but Hudson because I genuinely loved the other four performances, yet when it boils down to who wowed me the most last year, Rinko Kikuchi all the way. Her performance moved me to tears twice in the film and she says so much with silence that not giving her the award should be a crime.