Lebanese independence for Syria's sake

It would not be wise to place any bets on the Middle East right now. Unprecedented and unexpected events are unfolding across the entire region so quickly it boggles the mind.\nWhen Hussein's statue fell in Baghdad, it knocked over the first piece in the political domino game that weaves across the Middle East. The democratic catalyst the Bush administration hoped to unleash when it attacked Iraq seems to be working, one domino at a time.\nThe pieces fell violently in Lebanon when former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri died Feb. 14 in a car bomb attack in Beirut. The world quickly blamed Syria, which denied the charge, but nonetheless Damascus is more isolated than ever from the international community.\nThe death of Hariri hit the Lebanese where it counts, and now many are demanding change. Thousands sit in Martyr's Square as you read this, chanting slogans and waving flags, according to Associated Press reports -- the so-called "cedar revolution," named after the tree in the center of the Lebanese flag.\nSyrian troops entered the country in 1976 at Beirut's behest to quell the civil war. In 1989, Syria and Lebanon signed the Taif Agreement, in which Syria agreed to withdraw to the Bekaa Valley in central Lebanon after two years and then discuss its future role in the country. It did not require a complete withdrawal from the country, a mistake often reported by the national news media.\nHowever, Syria never consolidated its forces in the Bekaa Valley. Instead, it became the predominant military presence in Lebanon and cultivated a pro-Syrian government in Beirut. Its governance by proxy is about to end. \nThe first victory for the Lebanese opposition came March 1 when Prime Minister Omar Karami resigned and dissolved the pro-Syrian government. President Emile Lahoud, who is also backed by Syria, remains in office. However, his favor should be checked by the incoming parliament after the elections in May. More importantly, Arab and Western governments came together, ordering Syria to leave Lebanon and not return. \nSyrian President Bashar al-Assad's response was in Lebanon's favor. In an address to parliament Saturday he said Syria would re-deploy to the Bekaa Valley and then head home. \nSkeptics say he's stalling, but Assad would be foolish to bluff. He needs to get out while he still can. The United States, which has already sanctioned Syria, is pushing for Europe to do the same. It would devastate the Syrian people if they were completely cut off from Western trade. Another concern for al-Assad is the possibility that someone might decide to remove the Syrians by force.\nSyria is understandably hesitant to leave its powerful position. Lebanon is a conduit to international trade for Syria and provides jobs for hundreds of thousands of Syrians, according to AP reports. Also, the civil war might re-ignite without the Syrian military cooling ethnic tensions.\nThere is no reason for Syrian workers to leave along with the military. Immigrant workers are commonplace in wealthy Arab countries. And, from a trade perspective, the threat of economic and political isolation from Europe far outweighs Lebanon's current value as a seaport.\nA second civil war is certainly a possibility. To keep this from happening, the United Nations and the Arab League should keep a close watch on the country and offer assistance where necessary. In January, the United Nations extended the mandate of its interim force in Lebanon until the end of July at the request of the Lebanese government. Theoretically, U.N. troops will mitigate any repercussions from the Syrian redeployment.\nSyria needs to jump on board as the Middle East evolves, otherwise it will quickly get left behind with devastating consequences. It's time for Damascus to give Lebanon back to the Lebanese.