Professor studies political promises

Recent studies conducted by IU students have uncovered a disparity between the number of campaign promises made by politicians and the number kept.\nV450: Promises and Performance in U.S. Congress is Professor Evan Ringquist's School of Public and Environmental Affairs gem. Students researching the performance of politicians from 1992 to 2002 found that, on average, just more than three-fifths of all promises made on campaign trails are kept by their makers. \nThe ongoing study is being conducted in six policy arenas: health care, welfare, employment, foreign affairs, morality policies (including abortion and illegal drug policy), crime and gun control, and the environment.\nRingquist said that, in general, Republicans and Democrats are equally effective in executing campaign promises but that in certain policy areas, a gap can emerge. \nFor instance, Ringquist said Republicans are less likely to follow through on environmental promises, but Democrats are more lax about gun control policies.\n"What that says is: Which party is more trustworthy varies by policy area," Ringquist said.\nAccording to Ringquist's initial study, which examined the records of U.S. Congressmen, about 62 percent of politicians' stump claims are supported by their voting records. Ringquist said two more studies are on the way -- one evaluating U.S. Senators and one state-level politicians.\nEllen Whitt, spokeswoman for Governor-elect Mitch Daniels' government transition, said the Republican has been cautious about writing checks to his constituency that he can't cash.\n"I think that he's been careful not to over-promise or to make different statements on things where he knows there's still information to be gathered," Whitt said. "In those situations, a lot of different solutions need to be considered."\nWhitt also said the governor-elect will exercise his newly-minted powers to ensure a smooth transition. \n"He plans to do as much as he can by executive order and rule change," she said. "He's going to try to get as much of his agenda through as quickly as he can."\nRingquist's pilot study was published by the Social Science Quarterly in June 2004. Ringquist said his findings, which will ultimately comprise a book, exude findings more complete and objective than those of usual social standards.\n"Almost everybody believes they know whether politicians keep their campaign promises," he said. "This belief, on the part of citizens and the media, is based upon almost no evidence. We should ground our beliefs about government and politics on systematic evaluations of evidence. These things aren't just a matter of opinion."\n-- Contact senior writer Rick Newkirk at renewkir@indiana.edu.