In the end, the convention wisdom was that conventional wisdom didn't really matter this election.\nFrom the Iowa caucuses to the party conventions, through the presidential debates and into Election Day, as exit polls said one thing and counted ballots ended up saying something else, the 2004 presidential election was anything but predictable.\nThe answer might seem clear in hindsight, judging from some of the time-tested -- and sometimes offbeat -- indicators that soothsayers, pundits, brokers and gamblers who rely on and swear by to help them predict the next White House occupant.\nBut 2004 was anything but a regular election year, and many signals pointed to a Democratic candidate John Kerry victory as well as the re-election of President George W. Bush.
THE BELLWETHERS WERE RIGHT -- AGAIN.\nOf the 3,141 counties or county-equivalent administrative units in the United States, six have correctly chosen with the winner in every election since 1960. This election, all six -- Eddy County, N.M., Van Buren County, Ark., Logan County, Ark., Lincoln County, Mo., Ferry County, Wa., and Vigo County, Ind. -- went to Bush.\nVigo County, where Terre Haute is located, has a particularly impressive track record. It has sided with the winner in every election except one since 1940. This year, Vigo Hoosiers preferred Bush over Kerry 52.8 percent to 46.4 percent.\nTennessee has gone for the presidential winner in the past 10 elections, and Missouri, the swingiest swing state there is, has gone with the winner in every election 1904. This year Bush carried both. He also won Ohio, without which no Republican has ever made it to Washington.
FOLLOW THE MONEY.\nThe Iowa Electronic Market, located within the University of Iowa's business school, is an online futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events, such as the presidential election, which it has predicted since its inception in 1988. Traders gave Bush a slight edge this year, and thought the popular vote share would break down 50.45 for Bush and 49.55 for Kerry. (The actual breakdown was eerily close -- 51.6 percent to 48.6 percent, Bush over Kerry.)
KIDS PREDICT THE DARNDEST THINGS\nThe Nickelodeon cable channel's "Kids' Vote" has been right since 1988 -- but this year the children went for Kerry. The Weekly Reader however, a newspaper for elementary and high school students, also polled students on their presidential preference; this year the students went for Bush, making them correct for now 13 elections in a row.
BOO! HALLOWEEN MASK SALES PICK WINNERS\nHalloween masks of the two candidates have foretold the winner of every election since 1980: the candidate who sells the most masks wins. This year www.BuyCostumes.com reported that Bush outsold Kerry narrowly.
THE 50 PERCENT RULE\nFive incumbent presidents since 1952 who appeared victorious (Dwight D. Eisenhower, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton) had approval ratings that were consistently above 50 percent. The three who lost (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush) had ratings consistently below 50 percent approaching Election Day.\nThis year, Bush's job-approval ratings teetered around 50 percent, and going into Tuesday's election, counted just enough to win it.
MAY THE BEST -- AND TALLEST -- MAN WIN?\nIn the age of television, the taller candidate for president has almost always won the election. Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale, both shorter than he; George H.W. Bush had nearly six inches on Michael Dukakis when he trounced him in 1988, but fell to Bill Clinton, equal in height, in 1992.\nGeorge W. Bush, however, has proven height is not always a factor in election predictions. The 5-foot-11 3/4-inch Bush beat the 6-foot-1-inch Al Gore in 2000, and again bested the taller man, defeating 6-foot-4-inch Kerry.
WAR. WAR. WAR.\nWhen the country is involved in a war on the date of the election, the old political saying an incumbent likes to give is, "Don't change horses midstream." Americans retained Bush this election while we're engaged in a war abroad fighting international terrorism, and Americans have a fairly consistent record of retaining war-time presidents: James Madison won during the War of 1812; Abraham Lincoln hung on during the Civil War in 1864; Franklin Roosevelt won his unprecedented fourth term during World War II; and Richard Nixon retained the White House in 1972 in the midst of the unpopular Vietnam War.
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE FLUNK-OUT\nNo president who has lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College has been re-elected - until now. In the elections of 1824, John Quincy Adams won the Electoral College over Andrew Jackson, who took the popular vote, only to have Jackson bounce back and unseat Adams in 1828. Republican Rutherford Hayes defeated Democrat Samuel Tilden in the Electoral College by one vote in the bitterly contest 1876 election, and did not run for reelection. In 1888 Benjamin Harrison narrowly defeated incumbent President Glover Cleveland, who re-ran and defeated Harrison four years later.\nAlthough Al Gore won a half-a-million more votes than Bush in 2000, Bush won more electoral votes. This year, he became the first president to lose the popular vote his first time running, but win it and the Electoral College for reelection.
REDSKINS LOSE! BUSH WINS?\nThe Washington Redskins had an uncanny ability to predict the president, until this year broke their prognosticating streak. In the last 18 elections, when the Redskins have won their final home game prior to the election, the incumbent has held the White House. This year, they lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers, which would have been good news for Kerry but Bush squeaked out an overtime electoral win in Ohio.\nIn other sports, from 1952 to 1976, if the American League won the World Series, then the president would be a Republican. If the National League won, then the election would go to the Democrat. The World Series predictions had been regularly incorrect after 1976, until 2000, when Bush defeated Gore and the American League New York Yankees defeated the National League New York Mets. This year, the American League Boston Red Sox defeated the National League St. Louis Cardinals. \nApparently superstition wouldn't let the candidate from Boston have it both ways.\n-- Contact senior writer Tony Sams at ajsams@indiana.edu.
