Poll: Bush leads Kerry

If the presidential election were to be held today, George W. Bush would win in Indiana over Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 52 to 37 percent margin. According to a poll conducted between March 22 and 24 by Bellwether Research and Consulting of Alexandra, Va. for the Indiana Manufacturers Political Action Committee and recently released by the Indiana Manufacturers Association, only 35 percent view Kerry favorably while 55 percent view Bush favorably. The poll surveyed 604 likely voters.\nStill, it comes as no surprise to most people that Bush would win over Kerry in the state of Indiana. \n"Indiana has a long history of voting Republican, at least at the level of the president. There is very little chance for Kerry to win this state," said Michael McGinnis, a political science professor and co-director of workshop in political theory and policy analysis.\nOne of the reasons for Indiana's history of voting republican is the long-term Ku Klux Klan presence here, said Matt Brunner, vice-president of the College Democrats. Parts of Indiana were once not very favorable to the civil rights movement, Brunner said. Though the state votes democrat when it comes to voting for a governor and has a number of Democratic congressmen, but it votes republican when voting for president, he added. \n"But even in the state, it varies from place to place," he said. "Some places vote left and some are more inclined to vote right."\nMcGinnis said the reason for Indiana voting republican was because Indiana has been a predominantly rural state and, thus, tends to be rather conservative in political attitudes. \n"I think traditional religion remains an important force in this state compared to more urbanized states, and that also contributes to leaning republican," he said. "And a long history of dominance by the Republican Party has reinforced all these factors."\nIf Iraq and gas prices stabilize, Bush's chances of winning the election with a wider margin would improve with each passing day, undergraduate Sarah Barker said. \n"Hoosiers love George Bush. Hoosiers have moral values, love the country and see George Bush as reflecting our moral values and the love for our country," said College Republicans Chairman Angel M. Rivera. "George Bush is a nice guy with good moral values, and Hoosiers see him doing for the U.S.A. what Hoosiers like to see done for the U.S.A."\nAs far as the loss of military lives in Iraq is concerned, Rivera said every time a soldier dies, it is a worthy price paid for the freedom of 25 million Iraqis. \n"And the economy has gone up -- the number of jobs has gone up -- and we must worry about the gas prices only if they continue to rise," he said. \nAnd Rivera is sure they, too, will settle down soon.\nIt is early days in the election, and a lot can happen between now and November, Brunner said. Polls vary from week to week and month to month, and Brunner said the next poll might show Kerry in a more favorable light than the Bellwether poll. \n"The next poll could even be a dead tie," he said. \nThe philosophy of the present government and rise and fall of the economy would be main issues of the campaign, IMA President Patrick Kiely said. \n"Polls give the snapshot of the public mood at a given point, and this is just one in the long series of polls that would be conducted," he said. \nWhat determines the outcome of the poll or even the election is the happenings around the world and the state of the economy, Kiely added.\nKiely, Brunner and Rivera believe the polls would reflect the mood of the people better toward the middle or end of October, when the presidential election is closer. \n-- Contact staff writer Hina Alam at halam@indiana.edu.