Analysts see weakness in NBC

NEW YORK -- Three weeks into the new television season, NBC is giving its Friday schedule a complete facelift -- an indication all is not well at the most profitable broadcast network.\nThe critically praised "Boomtown" is now on hiatus, replaced by a "Law & Order: SVU" rerun. Alicia Silverstone's dating drama, "Miss Match," is moving an hour later to 9 p.m. EDT. And a "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" rerun was lifted from Bravo and plugged into the 8 p.m. slot.\nWith old favorites "Friends," "Frasier" and "ER" losing audience and no new hits, NBC is down 10 percent in viewers this season compared to last. Among the 18-to-49-year-old demographic its executives care about most, the decline is 12 percent.\n"I don't want to say they're in trouble, but they've got weaknesses that a savvy counterprogrammer could take advantage of," Shari Anne Brill, a television analyst for the ad buying firm Carat USA, said Thursday.\nSo far, NBC executives remain bullish. The network is still No. 1 among 18-to-49-year-olds, the reason NBC takes in more advertising revenue than any other network and is second to CBS among all viewers.\n"We're in good shape," NBC entertainment president Jeff Zucker said. "We're having a good season."\nZucker points out that CBS, the WB and UPN have seen an even steeper decline among 18-to-49-year-olds. Networks are muttering about the sharp drops in youthful demographics, believing a change in Nielsen Media Research's methodology is partly responsible; Nielsen says their changes aren't to blame. \nWith "Friends" and "Frasier" in their final seasons, it's considered a crucial year for NBC.\n"Even 'Will & Grace' is past its fifth season," aid John Rash, an analyst for the Chicago ad-buying firm Campbell-Mithune. "They have not established the new generation of hits in the same way that they were able to get 'Seinfeld' to replace 'Cheers' and 'ER' to replace 'L.A. Law.'"\nBright spots for NBC include Mondays, where the continued success of "Fear Factor" has helped the new drama "Las Vegas," get off to a quick start. And after a surprising decline last year, "The West Wing" appears to have righted its ship creatively and commercially.\nThe pressure remains to find new hits. One factor in NBC's favor: it's only two weeks, and new shows can be introduced or catch on now at any time.\n"They might be alright this year," Brill said. "The problem is next year. They might be in trouble. They don't have a new generation to take over on many of their nights. They could very well lose their 18-to-49-year-old supremacy"