Will Ming give Rockets a dynasty?

The Houston Rockets are on the clock. History will once again note the time.\nLast year, the Washington Wizards made Kwame Brown, a forward from Glynn Academy in Brunswick, Ga., the first overall pick in the NBA Draft. Brown became the first high school player drafted No. 1 overall.\nNow, with the NBA Draft set for Wednesday, it is almost certain the Rockets will take seven-foot-five center Yao Ming from China with the first overall pick. The 22-year-old giant first intrigued NBA scouts with his play in the 2000 Sydney Olympics for China, and he led his Shanghai Sharks to the Chinese Basketball Association title. (The teammate that scored the winning bucket in the clincher? Yes, that was former IU player Steve Hart. I guess we can consider the Chinese Basketball Association the other CBA.)\nBeing the first foreign player taken No. 1 overall is one thing. Being a Chinese player taken No. 1 overall is completely another matter.\nThe questionable human rights record of China, brought into light in the sporting context during the 2008 Summer Olympics host city selection process, has been opened for renewed scrutiny. The International Olympic Committee eventually selected Beijing to host the games, but one wonders if the communist government in China will develop a new friendliness as it uses sports to promote itself.\nGiven that, it's safe to say that the Rockets will be taking a bigger risk than ordering the moo shoo eel by making Yao the first pick.\nCan Yao play? Well, he cannot possibly be more immobile than other giants, such as Gheorge Muresan or Chuck Nevitt, and he cannot possibly be less physical than Manute Bol or Shawn Bradley. He could probably put on some more weight, but he is not ridiculously skinny. He also showed he could move around the floor relatively well in workouts and the Olympics, so it's safe to say already that Ben Wallace's NBA blocked shots title from last year is in serious jeopardy.\nWill Shaquille O'Neal bully him in the paint? Of course, he will. Then again, who doesn't O'Neal bully in the paint?\nDo the Rockets need him? Well, the Rockets starting center otherwise will be Kelvin Cato. So the answer is definitely "yes."\nThe risk in selecting Yao is that the controlling Chinese "authorities" have made negotiations tedious and difficult. This story first came to light just after the Chinese authorities apparently decided that Wang Zhi Zhi, the Dallas Mavericks 7-1 forward, would not be playing in the NBA at least at the start of next season.\nWang missed two deadlines to return to China in order to practice with the Chinese national team. The national team will play in the World Championships, to be played in Indianapolis this summer. Upset that he missed the deadlines, the Chinese authorities threatened to disallow him from playing for the Mavs training camp if not longer.\nMavs owner Mark Cuban, an IU alum, told me in an e-mail interview that Wang will be back though.\n"Definitely not...he will play next year, hopefully with the Mavs," Cuban said.\nAs part of the agreement between the Mavs and the Chinese government, the Mavs gave the Chinese government the right to call Wang back to play for the national team. When Wang decided to prepare for the World Championships in Los Angeles away from the rest of the team, some speculated that he might defect.\nSo far, the Chinese government has had no reason to be nervous yet. Because the Chinese government came a-callin,' Wang can't play for the Mavs summer league team, and as a result, they can't monitor his progress as well they might like. In fact, Mavs coach Don Nelson said last week that he hadn't spoken with Wang since the end of the season.\nThe Mavs still want to retain Wang and are willing to spend at least $4.5 million per year, the NBA's first-year average, in order to keep him. Wang, a perennial All-Star in China but a mere role player in the NBA, was a second round pick of the Mavs in the 1999 NBA Draft, and the Mavs negotiated long and hard to convince the Chinese government to let him play here.\nThat leads us to Yao. He will not be in New York for the draft because he is practicing with the national team. He will, like all Chinese athletes, have to give half his income to the Chinese government. \nOn the other hand, he probably will get a kick out of the lack of state income taxes in Texas assuming he winds up with the Rockets. The Chinese government will probably get skittish if he likes 21st century American culture over whatever prehistoric era the Chinese are in now. Can anybody confirm that "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" took place long in the past?\nI wish Yao well given the unique pressures he will be facing. But I understand if anybody thinks he wouldn't be worth the trouble.\nAfter all, many who know a lot more about this sort of thing don't know what Chinese basketball will be like in the future.\nWhen I asked Cuban how many Chinese players will be in the NBA 10 years from now, he said, "(I have) no idea"