Middle East crisis might influence swing voters

International conflict has competed with the presidential race for the nation's attention recently, but opinions are mixed as to whether it will have lasting effect on the outcome of the election.\nThe attack on the USS Cole in Yemen and the violence in the Middle East will not affect the candidates to a great extent, but if it were to affect either candidate, it would only marginally help Vice President Al Gore, said John Aldrich, professor of political science at Duke University.\nHe said Gore could benefit from this situation because of voters' tendencies to "rally around the flag."\n"They feel they need to support the president during times of international crisis," Aldrich said. \nBut with the connection between President Bill Clinton and Gore also comes the possibility of a negative backlash toward the Democratic candidate, said Patrick McGeever, political science professor at IU-Purdue University at Indianapolis. \n"Obviously, it's a blow to Clinton's attempts to broker a Mideast peace (deal)," he said. "There's the potential there to hurt him (Gore)."\nIn past elections, the toll foreign affairs has taken on candidates has been more severe. Jimmy Carter's race against Ronald Reagan in 1980 was crippled by the Iranian hostage situation, with the captives not being released until Reagan's inauguration. McGeever said the media published the increasing number of days the hostages were detained, and Iran capitalized on the situation to hurt the election.\nIn 1964, current events helped Lyndon Johnson exaggerate his portrayal of Barry Goldwater as "scary" when Russian leader Nikita Khrushchev was removed and China exploded their first nuclear weapon, Aldrich said.\nWhether the conflicts will sway voters is also in question. On the foreign policy side, the attack in Yemen will have a "minimal" effect on the Clinton administration so Gore will see little effect, said Robert White, IUPUI associate dean of liberal arts and associate professor of sociology.\nHe said people's priorities are already set and will vote for the candidate who aligns most with those ideas.\n"Most people are going to be concerned with their personal lives," he said. "I don't know that it (the attack in Yemen) will resonate with the average voter."\nThe way voters perceive foreign conflicts also plays a vital role, McGeever said.\n"It depends on whether the voters feel endangered," he said. "I think they don't think they do."\nThis year's race is also extremely close, so even if the number of voters that shift positions because of foreign affairs is small, they will still make an impact, Aldrich said.\nTexas Governor George W. Bush and Gore are also moderates, making breaking news more influential in swaying voter decisions, he said.\n"It's pretty balanced in most people's minds," Aldrich said. "There could be enough to move a lot of people because they're so close to the balance point anyway"