The IU men’s basketball team lost against Maryland on Wednesday, but there’s some good news that comes as a result. It's out of the gauntlet.
After a tough stretch of schedule where six of seven games were against teams at least .500 in Big Ten play, the Hoosiers will be basking in sweet relief coming down the stretch.
IU has six games left, four of which are at home. The two road trips are against Rutgers and Northwestern, who have a combined three Big Ten wins.
Even kenpom.com, which has been reluctant to move the Hoosiers into the top 50 teams all season due to their poor defense, has IU projected to win each of their final six games.
The first of those will come Sunday against Minnesota in Assembly Hall. And this is not the tough-to-beat-Minnesota of recent years. The Golden Gophers are winless on the road in conference play and haven’t had a quality win all season. The closest thing would be their win against Georgia in the NIT Season Tip-Off.
Their best player is senior guard Andre Hollins, who is no stranger to the Hoosier game plan. Hollins is averaging 15.7 points per game in conference play, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great player. He’s simply the best player on a bad team. The Hoosier guards should have little trouble keeping him in check.
Fans should also expect junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea’s minutes to continue to increase. The good news is this is the game IU Coach Tom Crean targeted for Mosquera-Perea’s return. He’s ahead of schedule and should expect to see more than 10 minutes of game time against Minnesota.
I stand firm that the Hoosiers are a better scoring team without Mosquera-Perea on the floor. The replacement is sophomore forward Collin Hartman, who adds yet another outside threat to the lineup.
According to the Indianapolis Star’s Zach Osterman, IU’s points per possession increased when Mosquera-Perea injured his knee. In the 16 games the forward was healthy for, IU notched 1.15 points per possession. In the seven games without Mosquera-Perea, IU shot 1.24 points per possession.
Where Mosquera-Perea does help is on the defensive end. At a lengthy 6-foot-9, the forward can alter shots in the paint. That will be helpful against a Minnesota team that will start two players 6-foot-9 or above in senior forward Maurice Walker and junior forward Joey King.
Realistically, I don’t see the Golden Gophers being much of an issue for this Hoosier team. It would be one thing if the game was being played at the Barn where road teams struggle, but it’s not. IU only has one loss at home and Minnesota only has one win in true road games, at Wake Forest.
The Hoosiers should be able to run away from Minnesota on the offensive end, and the defense won’t have a ton of trouble either. Minnesota doesn’t have a dynamic scorer who can take over a game.
Plus, IU’s defense actually looked pretty decent on the road against Maryland.
Expect a firm Hoosier victory in this one.
My Prediction: IU 83, Minnesota 69
Casey Krajewski is 13-2 in predictions this season.
