The IU vs. Purdue men’s basketball rivalry dates back to March 2, 1901. The final score of that game: 20-15, in favor of Purdue.
This time, we’ll see that many points scored in about the first 10 minutes. The two teams are coming off opposite results this weekend. Purdue upset a then-ranked Iowa team, while the Hoosiers were knocked off in Value City Arena by Ohio State.
IU will be tested again Wednesday. This Boilermaker team looks like it was built to take on the Hoosiers, who will again be without a real big man.
Sophomore forward Collin Hartman seems to be the current answer down low at 6-foot-7, and it’s gone well. Hartman has provided a boost to the Hoosier offense, giving them more spacing and another threat from deep. Don’t expect much different against Purdue.
However, on defense, Hartman has not looked as sharp and was exposed against Ohio State. It wasn’t really his fault. He’s undersized and playing a position he’s never played before. There’s only so much he can do against superior post ?players.
IU Coach Tom Crean said after the Ohio State game that the Hoosiers will continue to look for ways to help Hartman down low. They better hurry up, because Purdue has the weapons to dominate ?inside.
If Purdue is going to upset IU, it’s going to do it through the post. Purdue’s centers, A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas, should have a field day on the offensive end, as IU won’t have any one player who can stop them.
Purdue’s defense will also be tested. The Hoosiers lead the conference in 3-point field goal percentage, and the Boilermakers are the second-worst at defending the three.
Part of that is probably due to Hammons and Haas protecting the rim rather than closing out on shooters, but they’ll have to change that Wednesday. Give a Hoosier an open shot, and he will make you pay. Despite it being one of the more heated rivalries in the Big Ten, somehow these games are never close, especially in recent years. This one might be different.
The game will be decided by which team can force the other to play out of character. Will IU be able to figure out how to play defense in the post? If IU gets ahead, does Purdue have the shooters or talent to come back?
It’s an interesting matchup in that both teams seem built to beat the other. Purdue has the size to bully IU, but if it goes big, IU will be too fast for the Boilermakers on defense.
Purdue is in good position to pull off an upset here, but the Boilermakers will have to sacrifice defensive speed to do it. I don’t see Purdue being able to keep up with IU’s speed and shooting.
My Prediction: IU 80, ?Purdue 69
Casey Krajewski is 9-1 ?in predictions this season
crkrajew@indiana.edu
