I’ve recently caught myself using a certain term, or a variation of it, in my columns a little too much.
“If Nate Sudfeld didn’t get injured.”
The junior quarterback did get injured. So, why do I keep speaking as if the rest of the season isn’t real because the best-case scenario didn’t work out?
This led to the decision to take a deeper look at how much Sudfeld’s injury actually hurt the Hoosier’s season.
I am done giving freshman Zander Diamont so much flack. He has shown continuous growth and has displayed some real toughness playing through a far from ideal situation.
Sudfeld is a really skilled quarterback and it is impossible to truly quantify how much an injury affects a team, but they’ve lost every game since. Regardless, lets take a look at how much might actually have been different.
Iowa (Indiana record 3-2)
This was where it happened. Sudfeld injured his shoulder early in the second quarter after throwing a touchdown pass on the previous drive. They trailed 28-14 when he went down.
Before this occurred, this game was beginning to look like a great showing for the IU offense.
The team had struggled to combine the pass and the run into a complete offense until this game. The defense wasn’t looking so hot but Sudfeld and junior Tevin Coleman were both off to a great start before a certain sack changed the game and the season.
Coleman still broke two long touchdown runs but the team never developed a passing game for the rest of the day.
The IU defense contained Iowa for the entire second half, only giving up seven points, but the offense was stunted without Sudfeld. The defense forced several 3 and out’s but the offense couldn’t sustain a drive.
IU kept giving the ball back to Iowa but the Hawkeyes weren’t scoring.
Before we even knew Sudfeld would be out all season, the story became that IU could have stolen this game if he stayed in.
Call me crazy, but I say IU wins this game with Sudfeld.
Michigan State (Hypothetical IU record 4-2)
Granted this was the first start for the true freshman, Diamont, but there’s not much chance Sudfeld alters the outcome here.
Michigan State put together 662 yards of offense. Yes, Sudfeld would have thrown for more than Diamont’s 11 yards, but the IU defense didn’t show up this game. The Michigan State defense was likely to have stopped any quarterback that day.
Michigan (Hypothetical IU record 4-3)
The hardest thing to put your finger on when looking at the “what if” scenario is how much different the psyche of the team would be.
The 34-10 final makes this game seem much more like a blowout than it actually was.
Michigan didn’t look very good in this game, IU just kept handing the ball back to them. The Hoosiers had only two drives of more than five plays all game and their one touchdown came in garbage time.
Michigan had the ball for 7 minutes more.
Also, Diamont still hadn’t gained his passing confidence yet by this game.
I think Sudfeld would have completely altered the course of this game. Michigan wouldn’t have been able to load the box all game and IU would have put up some more drives.
The Hoosiers wouldn’t have dominated this game, but IU seemed like a better football team that simply was unable to keep the ball without a 3rd down pass attack, going 3-13 on 3rd down.
My stance: IU would have controlled this game and won.
Penn State (Hypothetical IU record 5-3)
This one is the only no-brainer for me.
IU shut down the Penn State offense but wasn’t able to move the ball when facing one of the best-run defenses in the nation with no pass threat to keep them honest.
Diamont turned the ball over twice and if the Hoosiers had basically any pass attack they would have won this game.
Rutgers (Hypothetical IU record 6-3)
Here is another game where it is hard to account for how different the IU psyche would be if they were 6-3.
Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing that.
Nonetheless, in terms of just football, not having Sudfeld didn’t really have an impact.
This was Diamont’s first big stride forward and he kept the ball moving well. He even dealt with several costly drops.
IU’s 45-23 loss had more to do with a lack of discipline on defense and the drops that halted drives. There were also some costly penalties.
I think IU loses this game with or without Sudfeld.
Ohio State (Hypothetical IU record 6-4)
It is easy to look at this one and say that having Sudfeld would have been the missing piece to finish off the upset.
I don’t quite see it that way.
For one, I don’t think Ohio State would have overlooked IU as much if they came in to this game 6-4 as it appears they did as IU was 3-7.
Secondly, besides the late interception, Diamont looked better than his numbers suggest. There were several more costly drops. Two of them looked like they could have been massive gains if they held on.
Maybe Sudfeld wouldn’t have thrown that ugly fourth quarter interception, but Ohio State is simply the better team. I really think Sudfeld being in uniform would have provoked a much better performance from the Buckeyes.
From the way I look at it, IU was still an inconsistent team with Sudfeld. I do not think having him would have made them a Big Ten contender, but I think a bowl game would have been much more likely.
Yikes, this was a long column and we didn’t even get into this Saturday’s game against Purdue.
Don’t worry; my thoughts on that game will be available in Friday’s column.
