Commentary

All that glimmers is not smart

POSTED AT 09:16 PM ON Nov. 4, 2009 | PRINT | Email | SHARE | COMMENTS (3)

College Mall has never been a place I associate with wise financial decisions, but if the last time I was there is any indication, the place has taken a turn for the worse.

It isn’t necessarily anything to do with the stores inside, but rather its recent spat of “Cash for Gold” events, a setup where people bring their gold jewelry, watches and such to a merchant who will make them an offer and if it’s accepted, pay them in cash.

And while it would be wrong of me to complain that such a deal is unfair (after all, no one is making these people sell their gold), it would be just plain foolish to assume that these people know much about what they’re doing.

Leaving aside for a moment the obvious problems with lack of information you run into when selling precious metals to some guy in a mall, and how you’ll almost definitely get some low-ball offer that makes mention to “transaction fees” and “impurity concerns,” most people don’t understand that the reason gold is so popular now is because it will be much more popular later.

That’s why so many cash-for-gold schemes are cropping up. Many gold-buying companies believe that gold will be much more valuable later, and want to buy as much as possible at what they see as today’s low prices, expecting a huge payoff in the future.

That payoff will either come as a protection against a sinking dollar, which is often associated with a high deficit, or merely because people think the dollar will sink and will be willing to pay a lot to buy it at the wrong time. 

Of course, things could also go the other way – the dollar could get stronger and gold would decrease in value (which isn’t likely).

But no matter what, someone is going to get stuck with a huge loss. It’s either that gold-buying companies are being tricked millions of separate times by individuals with an inexplicably better ability to read the market than companies full of finance experts, or these individuals are getting hosed.

History may often repeat itself, but to see the return of rampant speculation on an individual basis just as the recession ends is disappointing indeed.

Precious metals are prone to the same sort of fluctuations as any other asset, be it mortgage-backed securities, shares of Citigroup or Beanie Babies. It might be considered a “stable asset,” but that doesn’t mean it’s smart.

In times of uncertainty, many people place a premium on feelings of safety, but are often too hasty in buying it.

Most people who invest on what’s trendy are the ones who find out about the party just as the food is gone and the bill is arriving.

The only guaranteed money in speculation is for the middlemen who facilitate the parting of fools and their money – or gold, as they case may be. 

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Posted by Andrew at 1:31 PM on Nov 05, 2009 | Report this comment

"The only guaranteed money in speculation is for the middlemen who facilitate the parting of fools and their money – or gold, as they case may be." One should never EXPECT a return on the principle sum when speculating, which is why speculation is really only suitable for those who can afford the losses. The fact that you made this claim is unbelievably telling of how little you know about investment strategies, not to mention that you called the Cash4Gold initiative a speculative action, which it most certainly is not. What gives this author the idea that he is eligible to write about matters of personal investment strategies or monetary/fiscal policies?

Posted by Andrew at 1:30 PM on Nov 05, 2009 | Report this comment

"Precious metals are prone to the same sort of fluctuations as any other asset, be it mortgage-backed securities, shares of Citigroup or Beanie Babies. It might be considered a “stable asset,” but that doesn’t mean it’s smart." Anything is prone to fluctuations, but it's pure intellectual dishonesty to claim precious metals are as risky of an asset as unstable securities, low-yielding public stocks, or toys. In fact, the only reason why gold has become an investment strategy is because it is no longer representative of wealth in this country (or any "civilized" country, for that matter) due to the fact that our money is not backed by it anymore. As long as our economy is carried out through a fiat currency, precious metals will be an important asset in anybody's portfolio as a leverage against long-run inflationary policies. "Most people who invest on what’s trendy are the ones who find out about the party just as the food is gone and the bill is arriving." Which is why people who were smart bought gold after the NASDAQ crash at the turn of the millennium. Anybody with their faculties in place could have realized that this economic collapse was not only easily predictable, but also easily avoidable. That's why I, and many others, have made considerable profits on gold & mining stock investments, while a frighteningly large number of people are desperately trying to figure out how they're going to maintain their day-to-day wealth.

Posted by Andrew at 1:30 PM on Nov 05, 2009 | Report this comment

"History may often repeat itself, but to see the return of rampant speculation on an individual basis just as the recession ends is disappointing indeed." Just as the recession ends? Have you the journalistic integrity to cite what precisely makes you think that the continuing decline in the value of the dollar, the continuing in decline in employment numbers, and the enormously inflated money supply we conjured up to pay for our bailouts, are signs of economic recovery? In our economy, investment and savings are discouraged by poor monetary policies on the part of the Federal Reserve (artificially low interest rates, which hurt savings and encourages excess consumption), and equally poor fiscal policies on the part of the US Treasury (out-of-control deficit spending on the part of both Republicans and Democrats). What you deem "rampant speculation," would much more appropriately be labeled "necessity." After all, because of the government's cheap credit, and the subsequent effect this had on the financial industry, many individuals HAVE to sell their precious metals now in order to make ends meet.


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