
YIKES. If it’s a nasty time for Wall Street, it’s a nastier time for our good friend Ben Bernanke. (“The fate of the free world is riding on him!” as the econ professor I T.A. for put it so blandly this morning.)
Yes, the rates, they are a’changin,’ and U.S. monetary policy is getting a feather-ruffling for the ages here as of late. Even the 75 basis point cut today was a quarter-point short of what investors bet on with enough certainty to spike the Dow 300 points pre-Fed decision – and still managed to produce an overall result of the best single-day point jump in five years.
And now, for the fun part: This is where we all turn around, close our eyes, and play a nice game of “Recession? What Recession?”
Here’s the thing: Any sixth grader in America could probably regurgitate a surface-level blip she saw on the news and tell you something to the extent of “The economy is headed toward a recession.” But then, look at our top politicians and economists – they’re using kid gloves with their phrasing and words, toying with verbiage that’s blatantly ambiguous (and in many times, flat-out contrary) enough to make even non-economically inclined citizens scrunch up their faces and say “Wait a second…”
No, this is not one of the many cases where America can point and laugh at the TV regarding how much more we know than our exalted Commander in Chief. Bush’s seemingly ignorant approach to the ugly state of economic affairs is actually – and I never thought I’d say this – right in line with, frankly, what the public needs to be doing in order to minimize the blow to the economy: ACTING NORMALLY.
Why? For the same reasons why Ben Bernanke chose to take the extraordinary risk of bailing out the over-borrowed Bear Stearns: The alternative is much, much worse. Recessions, depressions, generally anything “bad” within economics, is exacerbated by a lack of public (read: investor) confidence. Lack of confidence in the markets will cause aggregate demand to slide further, thus slowing down an already-braking economy even more. If Bush – speaking through qualified economic advisors – makes a national address about the economy, and at best only mentions a slight downturn of economic activity, it’s not because his advisors are blind; it’s because they don’t want the public to flip out any more than it already is. It’s important to remember that Ben Bernanke, before he served as Federal Reserve Chair, was an academic-based economist – whose area of focus was the Great Depression. He’s trying to curtail analogous activity to what led to a financial fiasco decades ago. Bailing out the financial sector was the best option he had – in desperate times, an opaque, slightly-sneaky subsidy of the private sector was the most efficacious quick-fix the Fed could come up with.
And now we’re getting into concrete signs about “how the economy’s doing.” If the Fed’s actions — bailing out an i-bank with a less-than-beloved reputation (Bear Stearns has been described in The New York Times as “operating in the gray areas of Wall Street with an aggressive, brass-knuckes approach”) – is the best-case scenario? …You guessed it. Unprecedented in scope, this bailout has some super-scary implications indeed.
Nobody panic…