The fight for control of the United States Senate is raging all across the country.
This cycle, 34 Senate seats are up for grabs, including 24 Republican and 10 Democrat seats. Currently, the balance is 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats. With the Republicans on the defensive, national support on both sides is present.
According to Cook Politics, an organization that analyzes the vulnerability of congressional seats, there are currently nine toss-up races.
Eight of those seats are controlled by Republicans and only one by a Democrat.
The numbers look favorable for the Democrats, but I believe that the Republican Party will maintain a slight majority in the Senate.
States such as Indiana, Illinois and New Hampshire all have races garnering national attention that will affect the balance of power.
For example, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., faces a strong challenge from Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan. The realclearpolitics.com aggregate poll data shows that Hassan leads by 1 point, as of Aug. 12.
This is a race that will be decided by the narrowest of margins.
In statewide elections, incumbency is a huge advantage.
Republicans definitely maintain an advantage in this category. However, in Nevada and Indiana, there is no incumbent, which makes the races even more competitive.
One major advantage the Republicans also hold is name recognition.
For example, in Florida, as is the case in many toss-up races, former GOP presidential nominee Sen. Marco Rubio dwarfs Democratic opponents Rep. Alan Grayson and Rep. Patrick Murphy. Another example is Iowa, where Sen. Chuck Grassley, who has served five terms in the Senate, is up against Lt. Gov. Patty Judge.
However, these advantages may be cancelled out by Donald Trump’s effect on formerly Republican voters.
The true effects of Trump’s polarizing campaign will only be known after Election Day.
There is some cause for optimism, though. Recent polls show Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman pulling ahead of Democrat Ted Strickland.
Regardless of who wins the state in the presidential election, a Portman victory would be a massive blow to the aspirations of the Democrats.
To add, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., has decreased Democrat Katie McGinty’s lead to 1.3 points, and Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., leads Democrat Deborah Ross by 2.2 points on aggregate.
In Indiana, Republican Rep. Todd Young has decreased former senator Evan Bayh’s lead from 26 points down to seven.
If Young continues his charge at Bayh, which I think he will, it will be a very close race.
In Nevada, Republican Rep. Joe Heck has a 0.2 point aggregate lead on Catherine Cortez Masto.
Whether the Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after the dust settles, the party with control will only have a majority of a couple seats at most.
There is a real possibility that there will be fifty seats held by each side.
It’s going to go down to the wire, but I believe that the Republicans will pull it out.
Candidates such as John McCain, Rob Portman and Kelly Ayotte have been great servants to their respective states, and I hope they have the ability to continue to serve.
staranyi@indiana.edu
