The Republican National Convention will conclude with Donald Trump now being the official Republican nominee for president of the United States. On July 25, the Democratic National Convention will take place and Hillary Clinton will likely emerge as its nominee.
In the article “Who will be president”, the New York Times claimed Clinton has a 76-percent chance of winning the general election. As is consistent with how the mainstream media usually treats Clinton, they have more faith in her than I do.
The Times believes the Electoral College results will be somewhere around 347-191, in favor of Clinton.
I don’t see her winning any more than 285.
Since 2000, 40 of our 50 states have voted along party lines and there’s no comprehensive polling to suggest any of those states will switch allegiances.
The Times takes the same position, but with the remaining 10 states, it awards nine to Clinton, which I think is a bit too generous.
I might not be certain about which of those states will go which way, but I am certain that it won’t be a powerhouse victory for Clinton. If it happens at all, it’ll be marginal.
I say this, in part, because we haven’t elected two democrats back-to-back since 1856, excluding the election of Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, who took over after Teddy Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy died. Sine Clinton wasn’t President Obama’s vice president, I don’t see her having the same odds.
Actually, the last time we elected two presidents of the same party back-to-back was in 1988 and that was for a Republican who lasted one term. Which, I suppose, could be Clinton’s legacy.
In 2012, Obama won the general with 332 electoral votes, down from 359 in 2008. I expect the Democratic electoral advantage to continue its decline, especially since Clinton’s campaign is riddled with scandals, controversies and the careless handling of classified information. She isn’t nearly as strong of a candidate as Obama was.
I assume Indiana Gov. Mike Pence will help Trump carry Indiana and it’s quite likely New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico will go blue, as they did in 2012. Current polling averages, according to Real Clear Politics, verify that claim.
For Trump to win, he would have to capture all of the remaining states: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada.
It would be difficult, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
Ohio and Nevada have switched allegiances every eight years since 1984 and Florida has done the same since 2000, so they’re due to vote Republican this time around.
North Carolina has only voted blue once in the past nine elections and that was for Obama in 2008. It switched back in 2012 and perhaps will stay the course, though it’s currently a toss-up.
This means the race could come down to Virginia, a state that voted red 10 times in a row before going blue for Obama in the past two cycles.
Clinton is currently averages a five-point lead.
If she captures the state, the finals results will be 279-259. She wins, obviously, but not in the landslide predicted by the mainstream press.
The entire point here is to say a Clinton victory is not at all certain. She goes into the race with an electoral advantage, sure, but Democrats will regret it if they get too cocky with this election.
thshowal@umail.iu.edu
@TherinShowalter
