Bowling Green was supposed to be the IU defense’s first real test.
IU was supposed to be going up against a defending Mid-American Conference-champion quarterback and his posse of talented skill position players that could give IU trouble.
The skill players are still there alright, and they are certainly skilled, but quarterback Matt Johnson is out for the season, along with the 3,467 yards and 25 touchdowns he was bringing with him from last ?season.
James Knapke will be taking starting snaps for the Falcons for the second time after a 48-7 victory against Virginia Military Institute last weekend.
This is still a very talented Bowling Green offense, but after watching the VMI game a few times, I am becoming more and more confident IU will stop them enough to leave Doyt Perry Stadium 2-0 on the young season.
Bowling Green Coach Dino Baber’s fast-paced offense will be forced to focus on the run more than intended due to Johnson’s injury.
There are surely worse things to have to do when one has talented running backs such as Travis Greene and emerging sophomore Fred Coppet.
Where that does become worrisome for BGSU is what I saw in the offensive line.
To give background, the VMI defense Bowling Green faced last week gave up 42 points to FCS opponent Bucknell the week prior with over half of Bucknell’s yardage coming from the ground. Ipso facto , this is not a great rush defense.
Now, even though Bowling Green did run the ball extremely effectively against VMI, it was not as convincing as it looks on paper.
VMI’s defensive front, which runs a very similar scheme as IU by the way, generally clogged every hole on run plays early in the game giving Greene or Coppet no lanes to burst through. The Bowling Green offensive line flat out did not look persuasive.
Against Indiana State, one of IU’s best accomplishments was stuffing the inside run game. Bowling Green’s running focus was primarily on the inside.
I am aware Indiana State is not exactly a great test on IU’s rush defense, but neither is VMI against BGSU’s running game, am I right?
The Falcons made their big running plays largely on Greene being good at the game of football.
There were plays in which there was no hole but Greene patiently pushed through VMI defenders before bursting downfield with his athletic ability.
There was a play where two VMI defenders embarrassed Bowling Green blockers with both guys in perfect position to tackle Greene behind the line, and Greene just made them miss and took it for a large gain.
Later in the game, holes opened up more as a result of BGSU already pulling away and mentally defeating the Keydets and also because a team like VMI cannot keep up with Bowling Green’s pace for four quarters.
Point being, IU can stop their run game.
Where the quarterback situation gets interesting is that if Johnson were healthy, he would have been moving the passing game more successfully and in turn opening up the run game.
While in general Knapke played a quality game, especially for a debut start in a new system, his accuracy looked remarkably poor on short and intermediate passing routes which are crucial in establishing the Bowling Green offense and its pace in this scheme.
Deep throws downfield are where Knapke shows why he is a Division I starting quarterback.
He looks confident and skilled launching the ball downfield and what helps is that he has two very gifted wideouts in Roger Lewis and Heath Jackson.
Lewis, a freshman, made several impressive plays on jump balls and running ?after the catch. Jackson had an exciting diving catch down the side line on a deep pass as well.
IU defensive coordinator Brian Knorr has been stating the plan is to cause fits for Knapke, which is the perfect game plan when realizing IU can likely control the line of scrimmage on the run game anyway and Knapke looked very frazzled when there was ?pressure.
To summarize here, Bowling Green has capable skill players that can make their own plays, but they have a questionable offensive line.
If IU puts the emphasis on making it so Knapke cannot confidently get the ball into those playmaker’s hands, IU should control this game for the whole 60 minutes.
My prediction: IU wins 45-17.
brodmill@indiana.edu
