Columnists love writing predictions.
I love it myself. I wrote a prediction column last week.
During the season, most of these predictions are actually valid, and the writers’ stances have evidence to support them.
The truth, though, is that preseason predictions are absurd.
Sure, everyone knows that Ameer Abdullah from Nebraska is going to have a great year and that Ohio State has a defensive line that will cause havoc in the Big Ten.
The issue is that making predictions before a game has even been played is based on, for the most part, looking at sheets of paper and examining results from the prior season.
In college football, and most sports, that year of time in between is more drastic than I think the casual bystander realizes.
People looking from the outside, myself included, cannot see what bench player had the chip on his shoulder.
For example, who went into “Rocky” training mode with every second of spare time to become a freak of nature?
We in the media cannot see the player who had a very productive year and now has a solidified spot only to become complacent and lose that everyday hunger.
The value of experience cannot be quantified.
It does not just help in terms of knowing how to respond to certain coverage packages now that the player has seen it before.
It is crucial in the player’s head in terms of knowing what they have done before and knowing exactly what to address to improve.
It is crucial because now that player knows how to play college football far more than he had and can prepare accordingly.
It is crucial for that player to establish himself as a respectable peer and leader among teammates.
Therefore, a player who played last season but played poorly has an advantage and provides some unknown variables.
Past IU teams have relied on young players with as many as 16 freshmen getting playing time in Kevin Wilson’s first season to as few as 12 in 2013.
The Hoosiers are only losing four full-time starting seniors and one major contributing junior.
That tells you that the 2013 squad only had four guys with much that experience and that many springs and summers of hard work and growth.
Those springs and summers are essential and certainly accumulate.
This year, there are 18 returning starters, so that is nice.
Back in my high school football career, I came across a few teammates that were not expected to start or were looked at as the weak point of the team.
But then they put forth sociopathic levels of commitment in the offseason.
Those were the guys who stood out Friday nights and actually made a difference.
The stars people all know about are great and are ?essential.
It is the hidden warriors, though, that win games and championships.
I am not saying the tangible things we know are ?irrelevant.
I am saying there are too many factors we know nothing about until we see the Hoosiers play Saturday.
People can look at training camp feedback, but those of us watching from a distance don’t know which guys are the practice studs who become tentative in a real game.
They don’t know which players’ skill sets are clouded over in practice but essential when a real college football game is being played.
Nor do they know who will grow into a completely different animal on game day.
Trust me, those types of players exist, and there are many of them.
The point is, I do not know who will be the surprise standouts or the frustrating disappointments, but there will be some.
The point is, I am going to try to quit analyzing what will happen until I see IU play Indiana State on ?Saturday, and then we can see who is doing what.
brodmill@indiana.edu
